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AUSTRIA › BUNDESLIGA
10.10.2026 17:30
Generali Arena

Austria Vienna vs Sturm Graz Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away or Draw
Probability 74.4%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 82.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away or Draw
74.4%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
78.8%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
82.2%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Austria Vienna Win 25.6%
Draw 20.7%
Sturm Graz Win 53.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Austria Vienna1.82
Sturm Graz1.73
Recent Form (Last 5)
Austria Vienna Austria Vienna
WWDLW
52 GF / 29 GA
Sturm Graz Sturm Graz
WLDWL
50 GF / 31 GA
Key Stats
2.17
Average Goals Scored
2.08
1.21
Average Goals Conceded
1.29
13
BTTS Yes
13
14
Over 2.5
14
3.46
Shots on Goal
4.42

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Austria Vienna Austria Vienna 24 matches
Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 24 matches
Austria Vienna Statistic Sturm Graz
12 Wins 12
5 Draws 7
7 Losses 5
52 Goals For 50
29 Goals Against 31
2.17 Avg Goals Scored 2.08
1.21 Avg Goals Conceded 1.29
13 BTTS Yes 13
22 Over 1.5 20
14 Over 2.5 14
10 Over 3.5 11
7 Clean Sheets 8
5 Failed To Score 4
3.46 Shots On Goal 4.42
9.62 Total Shots 15.33
3.85 Corners 6
46.9% Ball Possession 44.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Sturm Graz. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Austria Vienna expected to line up in 3-4-1-2 and Sturm Graz in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Sturm Graz having the stronger overall control. Sturm Graz carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 4 with 11 points while Austria Vienna sit 10 on 7, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output.

Austria Vienna Analysis

From their first 7 matches, Austria Vienna have collected 7 points and now occupy 10 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 2 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses, while the 7:13 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on M. Fischer (2 goals), J. Hettwer (2 goals), K. Boateng (1 goals), with creative support from K. Boateng (2 assists), M. Fischer (1 assists), Lee Tae-Seok (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 1 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Sturm Graz Analysis

Sturm Graz arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 4 place with 11 points after 7 matches. Their overall return of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses with goals at 8:9 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by S. Jatta (2 goals), Nelson Weiper (2 goals), Szymon Włodarczyk (1 goals), with creative support from S. Seidl (4 assists), Emran Soglo (1 assists), A. Malic (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Austria Vienna won 6 times, Sturm Graz won 6 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 21:25 from Austria Vienna's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 3.07 goals per game.

1X2: Away or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (79.3%)
Predicted formations: Austria Vienna 3-4-1-2 / Sturm Graz 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Austria Vienna wins 6, draws 3, Sturm Graz wins 6

Standings

Bundesliga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 7 6 0 1 21:7 14 18
W W L W W
2 7 5 2 0 18:4 14 17
W D W W W
3 7 5 1 1 19:7 12 16
D L W W W
4 7 3 2 2 8:9 -1 11
L W L D W
5 7 2 2 3 11:12 -1 8
W D L W L
6 7 2 2 3 10:13 -3 8
D D W W L
7 7 2 2 3 9:12 -3 8
L D W W L
8 7 2 2 3 8:11 -3 8
W L L D W
9 7 2 2 3 6:16 -10 8
D W D L L
10 7 2 1 4 7:13 -6 7
D W L L W
11 7 1 2 4 7:13 -6 5
L L L D L
12 7 1 0 6 5:12 -7 3
L L L L L
Promotion - Bundesliga (Championship Group)
Bundesliga (Relegation Group)