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BRAZIL › SERIE A
15.08.2026 21:30
Arena da Baixada
Referee: Alex Gomes Stefano, Brazil
Atletico Paranaense
Match Timeline
RB Bragantino
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
61'
Leozinho ↔ Kerwin Vargas
Atletico Paranaense
⚽
67'
Pedro Henrique · Assist: Agustin Sant Anna
RB Bragantino
⚽
75'
Kerwin Vargas · Assist: Kevin Viveros
Atletico Paranaense
🔄
76'
Gabriel Girotto ↔ Fabinho
RB Bragantino
🔄
76'
Matheus Fernandes ↔ Eric Ramires
RB Bragantino
🔄
76'
José Herrera ↔ Eduardo Sasha
RB Bragantino
🔄
77'
João Cruz ↔ Dudu
Atletico Paranaense
🟨
78'
Eduardo Sasha
RB Bragantino
🔄
88'
Vinicinho ↔ Yuri Alves de Aquino
RB Bragantino
🔄
90'
Gilberto ↔ Jorge Rivaldo
Atletico Paranaense
🔄
90'
Dudu ↔ Bruno Zapelli
Atletico Paranaense

Atletico Paranaense vs RB Bragantino Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 57.6%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 62.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
57.6%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
58.8%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
62.1%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
86.9%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Atletico Paranaense Win 57.6%
Draw 7.9%
RB Bragantino Win 34.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Atletico Paranaense1.19
RB Bragantino1.13
Recent Form (Last 5)
Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense
WWDLW
31 GF / 22 GA
RB Bragantino RB Bragantino
WLDWL
28 GF / 23 GA
Key Stats
1.29
Average Goals Scored
1.27
0.92
Average Goals Conceded
1.05
11
BTTS Yes
10
10
Over 2.5
9
4.5
Shots on Goal
4.86

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 24 matches
RB Bragantino RB Bragantino 22 matches
Atletico Paranaense Statistic RB Bragantino
12 Wins 10
4 Draws 4
8 Losses 8
31 Goals For 28
22 Goals Against 23
1.29 Avg Goals Scored 1.27
0.92 Avg Goals Conceded 1.05
11 BTTS Yes 10
16 Over 1.5 17
10 Over 2.5 9
3 Over 3.5 2
8 Clean Sheets 7
7 Failed To Score 6
4.5 Shots On Goal 4.86
11.73 Total Shots 15.71
4.68 Corners 5.48
47% Ball Possession 49.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Atletico Paranaense expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and RB Bragantino in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward RB Bragantino having the stronger overall control. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Atletico Paranaense come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors RB Bragantino.

Atletico Paranaense Analysis

Operating from 3 place with 37 points from 21 games, Atletico Paranaense bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. With 11 wins, 4 draws, and 6 defeats plus a goal balance of 28:19, they continue to show very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Their attacking quality is driven by Kevin Viveros (12 goals), Steven Mendoza (4 goals), Julimar (3 goals), with creative support from Gastón Benavídez (5 assists), Lucas Esquivel (3 assists), João Cruz (3 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. At home, their record of 8 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses points to a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

RB Bragantino Analysis

RB Bragantino sit 6 with 31 points after 20 league matches. The record of 9 wins, 4 draws, and 7 defeats, together with a 26:20 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Isidro Pitta (6 goals), Lucas Barbosa (4 goals), Juninho Capixaba (2 goals), with creative support from Henry Mosquera (3 assists), Isidro Pitta (2 assists), Lucas Barbosa (2 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, their split return of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Atletico Paranaense won 6 times, RB Bragantino won 5 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 22:20 from Atletico Paranaense's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.8 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (92.1%)
Predicted formations: Atletico Paranaense 3-4-2-1 / RB Bragantino 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Atletico Paranaense wins 6, draws 4, RB Bragantino wins 5

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 28 18 6 4 55:23 32 60
W W W W W
2 28 16 9 3 47:21 26 57
D W D D W
3 28 14 7 7 43:32 11 49
W D L D W
4 28 13 9 6 44:36 8 48
W L W D W
5 28 12 10 6 43:35 8 46
L W W W W
6 28 13 6 9 42:40 2 45
W L W L W
7 28 12 7 9 37:32 5 43
W D W L W
8 28 11 8 9 43:41 2 41
W W W W W
9 28 10 8 10 37:43 -6 38
L D L W W
10 29 10 7 12 34:33 1 37
D L L D L
11 28 10 6 12 33:32 1 36
L W L W W
12 29 10 6 13 32:42 -10 36
W L D W L
13 28 9 8 11 41:45 -4 35
L W D D L
14 29 8 9 12 34:43 -9 33
D W D W L
15 29 8 8 13 30:34 -4 32
L L L L L
16 27 8 7 12 34:41 -7 31
W W L W L
17 29 7 10 12 32:37 -5 31
W L W L L
18 29 7 9 13 31:39 -8 30
D D L L L
19 29 5 9 15 33:48 -15 24
D L L L L
20 28 3 9 16 29:57 -28 18
L D L W L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B