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BRAZIL › SERIE A
25.07.2026 21:30
Arena da Baixada
Referee: Rodrigo Jose Pereira de Lima, Brazil
Atletico Paranaense
Match Timeline
Internacional
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
45+1'
Leozinho · Assist: Kevin Viveros
Atletico Paranaense
⚽
60'
Kevin Viveros
Atletico Paranaense
🔄
62'
Matheus Bahia ↔ Braian Aguirre
Internacional
🔄
63'
Félix Torres ↔ Bruno Henrique
Internacional
🔄
65'
Steven Mendoza ↔ João Cruz
Atletico Paranaense
🔄
69'
Alerrandro ↔ Alan Patrick
Internacional
🔄
81'
Leozinho ↔ Isaac
Atletico Paranaense
🔄
81'
Gilberto ↔ Gastón Benavídez
Atletico Paranaense
🔄
81'
Jádson ↔ Juan Portilla
Atletico Paranaense
🔄
84'
Rodrigo Villagra ↔ João Pedro Bezerra de Oliveira Lo
Internacional

Atletico Paranaense vs Internacional Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 68.1%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
68.1%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
78.8%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Atletico Paranaense Win 68.1%
Draw 7.9%
Internacional Win 24%
Expected Goals (xG)
Atletico Paranaense1.28
Internacional1.12
Recent Form (Last 5)
Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense
WWDLW
27 GF / 22 GA
Internacional Internacional
WLDWL
22 GF / 24 GA
Key Stats
1.29
Average Goals Scored
1.16
1.05
Average Goals Conceded
1.26
11
BTTS Yes
11
10
Over 2.5
8
4.74
Shots on Goal
4.84

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 21 matches
Internacional Internacional 19 matches
Atletico Paranaense Statistic Internacional
10 Wins 5
3 Draws 6
8 Losses 8
27 Goals For 22
22 Goals Against 24
1.29 Avg Goals Scored 1.16
1.05 Avg Goals Conceded 1.26
11 BTTS Yes 11
14 Over 1.5 14
10 Over 2.5 8
3 Over 3.5 5
5 Clean Sheets 4
6 Failed To Score 5
4.74 Shots On Goal 4.84
12.16 Total Shots 15.47
5.05 Corners 7.05
47.5% Ball Possession 50.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Atletico Paranaense's more proactive style and Internacional's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Atletico Paranaense expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Internacional in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Internacional having the stronger overall control. Atletico Paranaense arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 4 with 30 points compared to Internacional in 14 on 21, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Internacional.

Atletico Paranaense Analysis

Atletico Paranaense come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 4 with 30 points from 18 matches. The record of 9 wins, 3 draws, and 6 defeats, together with a 24:18 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Kevin Viveros (11 goals), Stiven Mendoza (4 goals), Julimar (3 goals), with creative support from Gastón Benavídez (5 assists), João Cruz (3 assists), Lucas Esquivel (2 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, the record of 7 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses points toward a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Internacional Analysis

With 21 points from 18 games and a place of 14, Internacional still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 5 wins, 6 draws, and 7 defeats, and the 21:22 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Johan Carbonero (4 goals), Alexandro Bernabei (4 goals), Alerrandro (3 goals), with creative support from Johan Carbonero (3 assists), Alerrandro (3 assists), Vitinho (3 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, the split record of 2 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Atletico Paranaense won 8 times, Internacional won 3 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 18:12 from Atletico Paranaense's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (92.1%)
Predicted formations: Atletico Paranaense 3-4-2-1 / Internacional 4-4-2
Missing players: Atletico Paranaense 6, Internacional 3
H2H summary: Atletico Paranaense wins 8, draws 4, Internacional wins 3

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 28 18 6 4 55:23 32 60
W W W W W
2 28 16 9 3 47:21 26 57
D W D D W
3 28 14 7 7 43:32 11 49
W D L D W
4 28 13 9 6 44:36 8 48
W L W D W
5 28 12 10 6 43:35 8 46
L W W W W
6 28 13 6 9 42:40 2 45
W L W L W
7 28 12 7 9 37:32 5 43
W D W L W
8 28 11 8 9 43:41 2 41
W W W W W
9 28 10 8 10 37:43 -6 38
L D L W W
10 28 10 6 12 33:32 1 36
L W L W W
11 28 10 6 12 33:32 1 36
L L D L L
12 28 9 8 11 41:45 -4 35
L W D D L
13 28 9 6 13 28:42 -14 33
L D W L L
14 28 8 8 12 29:32 -3 32
L L L L L
15 28 8 8 12 33:42 -9 32
W D W L D
16 27 8 7 12 34:41 -7 31
W W L W L
17 28 7 8 13 30:38 -8 29
D L L L W
18 28 6 10 12 30:36 -6 28
L W L L D
19 28 5 8 15 32:47 -15 23
L L L L L
20 27 3 9 15 29:53 -24 18
D L W L W
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B