BRAZIL SERIE A
--.--.---- --:--
Arena da Baixada
Referee: S. Sampaio
Atletico Paranaense
Match Timeline
Gremio
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
20'
Kevin Viveros
Atletico Paranaense
VAR
31'
Lucas Esquivel
Atletico Paranaense
🟥
33'
Lucas Esquivel
Atletico Paranaense
🔄
35'
Joao Cruz ↔ Leo Derik
Atletico Paranaense
🔄
46'
J. Enamorado ↔ Andre Henrique
Gremio
🔄
46'
Gabriel Mec ↔ Riquelme
Gremio
🔄
51'
J. Nardoni ↔ Willian
Gremio
🔄
63'
Bruninho ↔ Dudu Kogitzki
Atletico Paranaense
🔄
64'
J. Portilla ↔ Diogo Riquelme
Atletico Paranaense
🔄
65'
M. Braithwaite ↔ Tete
Gremio
🟨
72'
Riquelme Freitas
Gremio
🟨
84'
Gastón Benavídez
Atletico Paranaense
🟨
84'
Riquelme Freitas
Gremio
🟥
84'
Riquelme Freitas
Gremio

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 92.6%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 50.9%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 43.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
92.6%
-
BTTS BTTS No
50.9%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
43.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
82.1%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Atletico Paranaense Win 92.6%
Draw 0%
Gremio Win 7.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Atletico Paranaense1.42
Gremio1.15
Recent Form (Last 5)
Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense
WWDLW
20 GF / 15 GA
Gremio Gremio
WLDWL
15 GF / 16 GA
Key Stats
1.54
Average Goals Scored
1.15
1.15
Average Goals Conceded
1.23
7
BTTS Yes
7
7
Over 2.5
5
4.85
Shots on Goal
4.08

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 13 matches
Gremio Gremio 13 matches
Atletico Paranaense Statistic Gremio
7 Wins 4
1 Draws 4
5 Losses 5
20 Goals For 15
15 Goals Against 16
1.54 Avg Goals Scored 1.15
1.15 Avg Goals Conceded 1.23
7 BTTS Yes 7
10 Over 1.5 10
7 Over 2.5 5
3 Over 3.5 1
3 Clean Sheets 4
3 Failed To Score 4
4.85 Shots On Goal 4.08
11.77 Total Shots 12.77
4.46 Corners 4
49.2% Ball Possession 51.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features Atletico Paranaense's more proactive style and Gremio's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Atletico Paranaense have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Atletico Paranaense expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Gremio in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Gremio having the stronger overall control. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Gremio. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

Atletico Paranaense Analysis

Atletico Paranaense sit 5 with 22 points after 13 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 7 wins, 1 draws, and 5 defeats, and the 20:15 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on K. Viveros (8 goals), S. Mendoza (4 goals), Julimar (3 goals), with creative support from G. Benavidez (4 assists), L. Esquivel (3 assists), Joao Cruz (2 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, they have managed 6 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses, a return that supports a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms they often show balanced attacking football.

Gremio Analysis

Gremio sit 11 with 16 points after 13 league matches. Their overall return of 4 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses with goals at 15:16 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Carlos Vinicius (7 goals), Edenilson (4 goals), Camutanga (1 goals), with creative support from Edenilson (2 assists), F. Amuzu (2 assists), Gustavo Martins (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the record of 0 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses points toward a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Atletico Paranaense won 6 times, Gremio won 7 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 16:17 from Atletico Paranaense's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Atletico Paranaense 3-4-2-1 / Gremio 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Atletico Paranaense 2, Gremio 6
H2H summary: Atletico Paranaense wins 6, draws 2, Gremio wins 7
Stats
Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense
Gremio Gremio
Shots on Goal
5
Shots on Goal
0
Shots off Goal
6
Shots off Goal
5
Blocked Shots
0
Blocked Shots
2
7 Corner Kicks 3
11 Fouls 13
1 Offsides 2
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Goal 0
6 Shots off Goal 5
0 Blocked Shots 2
8 Shots insidebox 5
3 Shots outsidebox 2
0 Goalkeeper Saves 4
368 Total passes 436
290 Passes accurate 379
0.99 expected_goals 0.89
🟨 2 Yellow Cards 2 🟨
🟥 1 Red Cards 1 🟥

Lineups

Atletico Paranaense
Formation
Gremio
Santos
Santos
C. Teran
C. Teran
Arthur Dias
Arthur Dias
L. Esquivel
L. Esquivel
G. Benavidez
G. Benavidez
J. Portilla
J. Portilla
Felipinho
Felipinho
S. Mendoza
S. Mendoza
Bruninho
Bruninho
Joao Cruz
Joao Cruz
K. Viveros
K. Viveros
Weverton
Weverton
Fabian Balbuena
Fabian Balbuena
Gustavo Martins
Gustavo Martins
Wagner Leonardo
Wagner Leonardo
C. Pavon
C. Pavon
J. Nardoni
J. Nardoni
L. Perez
L. Perez
Pedro Gabriel
Pedro Gabriel
J. Enamorado
J. Enamorado
Gabriel Mec
Gabriel Mec
M. Braithwaite
M. Braithwaite
Atletico Paranaense 3-4-2-1
Starting XI
23
Santos
G
22
C. Teran
D
4
Arthur Dias
D
37
L. Esquivel
🟥 33'
D
29
G. Benavidez
🟨 84'
M
27
J. Portilla
↓ 64'
M
5
Felipinho
M
7
S. Mendoza
M
48
Bruninho
↓ 63'
F
8
Joao Cruz
↓ 35'
9
K. Viveros
🟨 20'
F
Substitutes
1
Mycael
G
6
Leo Derik
↑ 35'
11
Isaac
47
Chiqueti
M
3
Leo
D
33
F. Aguirre
D
70
Renan Peixoto
F
2
Gilberto Junior
53
Dudu Kogitzki
↑ 63'
M
21
Leozinho
F
26
Claudinho
D
63
Diogo Riquelme
↑ 64'
M
Gremio 3-4-2-1
Starting XI
1
Weverton
G
2
Fabian Balbuena
D
6
Gustavo Martins
D
3
Wagner Leonardo
D
7
C. Pavon
M
5
J. Nardoni
↓ 51'
M
33
L. Perez
M
54
Pedro Gabriel
M
99
J. Enamorado
↓ 46'
F
37
Gabriel Mec
↓ 46'
F
22
M. Braithwaite
↓ 65'
F
Substitutes
12
Gabriel Grando
G
10
Willian
↑ 51'
M
14
Marcos Rocha
D
17
Dodi
M
38
Caio Paulista
D
21
Tete
↑ 65'
F
19
E. Noriega
M
43
Luis Eduardo
D
4
Walter Kannemann
D
77
Andre Henrique
↑ 46'
F
50
Bernardo Zortea
M
65
Riquelme
↑ 46' 🟨 72' 🟨 84' 🟥 84'
M
Last matches: Atletico Paranaense
30.05.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Mirassol
1
0
W
24.05.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Remo
2
1
W
17.05.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Flamengo
1
1
D
10.05.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Vasco DA Gama
0
1
L
26.04.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Vitoria
3
1
W
19.04.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Palmeiras
0
1
L
12.04.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Chapecoense-sc
2
0
W
05.04.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Atletico-MG
1
2
L
01.04.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Bahia
0
3
L
29.03.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Botafogo
4
1
W
22.03.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Coritiba
2
0
W
18.03.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Cruzeiro
2
1
W
15.03.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Fluminense
2
3
L
25.02.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
RB Bragantino
1
1
D
19.02.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Corinthians
0
1
L
12.02.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Santos
2
1
W
28.01.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Internacional
1
0
W
Last matches: Gremio
27.06.26
Fri
Gremio
Cascavel
2
1
W
30.05.26
Ser
Gremio
Corinthians
1
3
L
23.05.26
Ser
Gremio
Santos
3
2
W
17.05.26
Ser
Gremio
Bahia
1
1
D
10.05.26
Ser
Gremio
Flamengo
0
1
L
26.04.26
Ser
Gremio
Coritiba
1
0
W
18.04.26
Ser
Gremio
Cruzeiro
0
2
L
11.04.26
Ser
Gremio
Internacional
0
0
D
05.04.26
Ser
Gremio
Remo
0
0
D
03.04.26
Ser
Gremio
Palmeiras
1
2
L
22.03.26
Ser
Gremio
Vasco DA Gama
1
2
L
19.03.26
Ser
Gremio
Vitoria
2
0
W
16.03.26
Ser
Gremio
Chapecoense-sc
1
1
D
13.03.26
Ser
Gremio
RB Bragantino
1
1
D
26.02.26
Ser
Gremio
Atletico-MG
2
1
W
12.02.26
Ser
Gremio
Sao Paulo
0
2
L
05.02.26
Ser
Gremio
Botafogo
5
3
W
28.01.26
Ser
Gremio
Fluminense
1
2
L
H2H: Atletico Paranaense vs Gremio
02.05.26
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
Gremio
0
0
D
04.08.24
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
Gremio
0
2
L
17.04.24
H2H
Gremio
Atletico Paranaense
2
0
L
18.10.23
H2H
Gremio
Atletico Paranaense
1
2
W
27.05.23
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
Gremio
1
2
L
26.09.21
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
Gremio
4
2
W
13.06.21
H2H
Gremio
Atletico Paranaense
0
1
W
21.02.21
H2H
Gremio
Atletico Paranaense
1
0
L
25.10.20
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
Gremio
1
2
L
28.11.19
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
Gremio
2
0
W
04.09.19
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
Gremio
2
0
W
24.08.19
H2H
Gremio
Atletico Paranaense
2
1
L
15.08.19
H2H
Gremio
Atletico Paranaense
2
0
L
25.08.18
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
Gremio
2
1
W
22.04.18
H2H
Gremio
Atletico Paranaense
0
0
D
Last matches: Atletico Paranaense
30.05.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Mirassol
1
0
W
17.05.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Flamengo
1
1
D
26.04.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Vitoria
3
1
W
12.04.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Chapecoense-sc
2
0
W
29.03.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Botafogo
4
1
W
22.03.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Coritiba
2
0
W
18.03.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Cruzeiro
2
1
W
19.02.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Corinthians
0
1
L
12.02.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Santos
2
1
W
H2H at home: Atletico Paranaense
02.05.26
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
Gremio
0
0
D
04.08.24
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
Gremio
0
2
L
27.05.23
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
Gremio
1
2
L
26.09.21
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
Gremio
4
2
W
25.10.20
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
Gremio
1
2
L
28.11.19
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
Gremio
2
0
W
04.09.19
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
Gremio
2
0
W
25.08.18
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
Gremio
2
1
W
Last matches: Gremio
27.06.26
Fri
Gremio
Cascavel
2
1
W
17.05.26
Ser
Gremio
Bahia
1
1
D
18.04.26
Ser
Gremio
Cruzeiro
0
2
L
11.04.26
Ser
Gremio
Internacional
0
0
D
03.04.26
Ser
Gremio
Palmeiras
1
2
L
22.03.26
Ser
Gremio
Vasco DA Gama
1
2
L
16.03.26
Ser
Gremio
Chapecoense-sc
1
1
D
12.02.26
Ser
Gremio
Sao Paulo
0
2
L
28.01.26
Ser
Gremio
Fluminense
1
2
L
H2H away: Gremio
02.05.26
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
Gremio
0
0
D
04.08.24
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
Gremio
0
2
W
27.05.23
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
Gremio
1
2
W
26.09.21
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
Gremio
4
2
L
25.10.20
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
Gremio
1
2
W
28.11.19
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
Gremio
2
0
L
04.09.19
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
Gremio
2
0
L
25.08.18
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
Gremio
2
1
L

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 18 12 5 1 30:13 17 41
?
2 17 10 4 3 31:16 15 34
?
3 18 9 4 5 28:23 5 31
?
4 18 9 3 6 24:18 6 30
?
5 18 9 2 7 25:19 6 29
?
6 17 7 5 5 25:23 2 26
?
7 18 7 5 6 24:24 0 26
?
8 18 7 4 7 23:20 3 25
?
9 18 7 3 8 22:23 -1 24
?
10 18 6 6 6 18:19 -1 24
?
11 18 6 6 6 24:28 -4 24
?
12 17 6 4 7 31:31 0 22
?
13 17 6 4 7 21:25 -4 22
?
14 18 5 6 7 21:22 -1 21
?
15 18 5 6 7 26:29 -3 21
?
16 18 5 6 7 20:23 -3 21
?
17 18 5 5 8 22:29 -7 20
?
18 18 4 6 8 21:29 -8 18
?
19 17 4 4 9 18:24 -6 16
?
20 17 1 6 10 17:33 -16 9
?
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B

Missing Players

Atletico Paranaense 2 missing
-
Luiz Gustavo
Missing Fixture Yellow Cards
OUT
-
B. Zapelli
Missing Fixture Yellow Cards
OUT
Gremio 6 missing
-
Marlon
Missing Fixture Broken ankle
OUT
-
M. Villasanti
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
Joao Pedro
Missing Fixture Muscle Injury
OUT
-
Arthur Melo
Missing Fixture Thigh Injury
OUT
-
Viery
Missing Fixture Yellow Cards
OUT
-
Carlos Vinicius
Missing Fixture Yellow Cards
OUT