BRAZIL SERIE A
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Arena da Baixada

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 56.4%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 48.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
56.4%
-
BTTS Yes
71.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
48.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
82.9%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Atletico Paranaense Win 56.4%
Draw 17.1%
Fluminense Win 26.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Atletico Paranaense1.22
Fluminense1.29
Recent Form (Last 5)
Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense
WWDLW
32 GF / 23 GA
Fluminense Fluminense
WLDWL
52 GF / 38 GA
Key Stats
1.28
Average Goals Scored
1.53
0.92
Average Goals Conceded
1.12
12
BTTS Yes
24
10
Over 2.5
16
4.61
Shots on Goal
5.31

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 25 matches
Fluminense Fluminense 34 matches
Atletico Paranaense Statistic Fluminense
12 Wins 15
5 Draws 12
8 Losses 7
32 Goals For 52
23 Goals Against 38
1.28 Avg Goals Scored 1.53
0.92 Avg Goals Conceded 1.12
12 BTTS Yes 24
17 Over 1.5 28
10 Over 2.5 16
3 Over 3.5 8
8 Clean Sheets 7
7 Failed To Score 6
4.61 Shots On Goal 5.31
12.09 Total Shots 14.72
4.83 Corners 5.16
47.2% Ball Possession 61.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Atletico Paranaense expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Fluminense in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Fluminense having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Fluminense. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.

Atletico Paranaense Analysis

Atletico Paranaense approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 3 on 41 points after 23 outings. With 12 wins, 5 draws, and 6 defeats plus a goal balance of 31:20, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by Kevin Viveros (14 goals), Steven Mendoza (4 goals), Julimar (3 goals), with creative support from Gastón Benavídez (5 assists), João Cruz (4 assists), Lucas Esquivel (3 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. At home, their record of 8 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses points to a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

Fluminense Analysis

Fluminense come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 4 with 41 points from 24 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 11 wins, 8 draws, and 5 losses, while the 36:29 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on John Kennedy (8 goals), Luciano Acosta (3 goals), Rodrigo Castillo (3 goals), with creative support from Luciano Acosta (3 assists), Agustín Canobbio (2 assists), Guga (2 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 5 draws, and 4 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Atletico Paranaense won 5 times, Fluminense won 8 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 20:21 from Atletico Paranaense's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.73 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (83%)
Predicted formations: Atletico Paranaense 3-4-2-1 / Fluminense 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Atletico Paranaense wins 5, draws 2, Fluminense wins 8
Last matches: Atletico Paranaense
15.08.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
RB Bragantino
1
1
D
09.08.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Santos
2
0
W
30.07.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Corinthians
0
0
D
25.07.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Internacional
2
0
W
23.07.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Sao Paulo
2
1
W
11.07.26
Fri
Atletico Paranaense
RB Bragantino
1
2
L
09.07.26
Fri
Atletico Paranaense
Boca Juniors
0
1
L
30.05.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Mirassol
1
0
W
24.05.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Remo
2
1
W
17.05.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Flamengo
1
1
D
10.05.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Vasco DA Gama
0
1
L
02.05.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Gremio
0
0
D
26.04.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Vitoria
3
1
W
19.04.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Palmeiras
0
1
L
12.04.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Chapecoense-sc
2
0
W
05.04.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Atletico-MG
1
2
L
01.04.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Bahia
0
3
L
29.03.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Botafogo
4
1
W
22.03.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Coritiba
2
0
W
18.03.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Cruzeiro
2
1
W
Last matches: Fluminense
22.08.26
Ser
Fluminense
Remo
2
1
W
18.08.26
CON
Fluminense
Independ. Rivadavia
1
1
D
15.08.26
Ser
Fluminense
Palmeiras
3
2
W
11.08.26
CON
Fluminense
Independ. Rivadavia
0
0
D
09.08.26
Ser
Fluminense
Botafogo
1
1
D
30.07.26
Ser
Fluminense
Bahia
0
0
D
26.07.26
Ser
Fluminense
Gremio
1
1
D
17.07.26
Ser
Fluminense
RB Bragantino
1
1
D
12.07.26
Fri
Fluminense
Bahia
2
0
W
08.07.26
Fri
Fluminense
Nova Iguaçu
6
1
W
31.05.26
Ser
Fluminense
Cruzeiro
1
1
D
28.05.26
CON
Fluminense
Deportivo La Guaira
3
1
W
23.05.26
Ser
Fluminense
Mirassol
0
1
L
19.05.26
CON
Fluminense
Bolívar
2
1
W
16.05.26
Ser
Fluminense
Sao Paulo
2
1
W
09.05.26
Ser
Fluminense
Vitoria
2
2
D
07.05.26
CON
Fluminense
Independ. Rivadavia
1
1
D
03.05.26
Ser
Fluminense
Internacional
0
2
L
30.04.26
CON
Fluminense
Bolívar
0
2
L
26.04.26
Ser
Fluminense
Chapecoense-sc
2
1
W
H2H: Atletico Paranaense vs Fluminense
15.03.26
H2H
Fluminense
Atletico Paranaense
3
2
L
01.12.24
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
Fluminense
1
1
D
22.10.24
H2H
Fluminense
Atletico Paranaense
1
0
L
27.08.23
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
Fluminense
2
2
D
22.04.23
H2H
Fluminense
Atletico Paranaense
2
0
L
03.09.22
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
Fluminense
1
0
W
15.05.22
H2H
Fluminense
Atletico Paranaense
2
1
L
17.10.21
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
Fluminense
0
1
L
30.06.21
H2H
Fluminense
Atletico Paranaense
1
4
W
05.12.20
H2H
Fluminense
Atletico Paranaense
3
1
L
22.08.20
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
Fluminense
0
1
L
18.10.19
H2H
Fluminense
Atletico Paranaense
1
2
W
02.06.19
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
Fluminense
3
0
W
16.09.18
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
Fluminense
3
1
W
20.05.18
H2H
Fluminense
Atletico Paranaense
2
0
L
Last matches: Atletico Paranaense
15.08.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
RB Bragantino
1
1
D
25.07.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Internacional
2
0
W
30.05.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Mirassol
1
0
W
17.05.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Flamengo
1
1
D
02.05.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Gremio
0
0
D
26.04.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Vitoria
3
1
W
12.04.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Chapecoense-sc
2
0
W
29.03.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Botafogo
4
1
W
22.03.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Coritiba
2
0
W
18.03.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Cruzeiro
2
1
W
19.02.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Corinthians
0
1
L
12.02.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Santos
2
1
W
H2H at home: Atletico Paranaense
01.12.24
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
Fluminense
1
1
D
27.08.23
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
Fluminense
2
2
D
03.09.22
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
Fluminense
1
0
W
17.10.21
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
Fluminense
0
1
L
22.08.20
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
Fluminense
0
1
L
02.06.19
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
Fluminense
3
0
W
16.09.18
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
Fluminense
3
1
W
Last matches: Fluminense
18.08.26
CON
Fluminense
Independ. Rivadavia
1
1
D
09.08.26
Ser
Fluminense
Botafogo
1
1
D
26.07.26
Ser
Fluminense
Gremio
1
1
D
31.05.26
Ser
Fluminense
Cruzeiro
1
1
D
23.05.26
Ser
Fluminense
Mirassol
0
1
L
07.05.26
CON
Fluminense
Independ. Rivadavia
1
1
D
03.05.26
Ser
Fluminense
Internacional
0
2
L
30.04.26
CON
Fluminense
Bolívar
0
2
L
19.04.26
Ser
Fluminense
Santos
3
2
W
07.04.26
CON
Fluminense
Deportivo La Guaira
0
0
D
04.04.26
Ser
Fluminense
Coritiba
1
1
D
19.03.26
Ser
Fluminense
Vasco DA Gama
2
3
L
12.03.26
Ser
Fluminense
Remo
2
0
W
26.02.26
Ser
Fluminense
Palmeiras
1
2
L
05.02.26
Ser
Fluminense
Bahia
1
1
D
H2H away: Fluminense
01.12.24
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
Fluminense
1
1
D
27.08.23
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
Fluminense
2
2
D
03.09.22
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
Fluminense
1
0
L
17.10.21
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
Fluminense
0
1
W
22.08.20
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
Fluminense
0
1
W
02.06.19
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
Fluminense
3
0
L
16.09.18
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
Fluminense
3
1
L

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 24 15 6 3 44:20 24 51
W L D W L
2 23 13 6 4 45:21 24 45
L W W D D
3 23 12 5 6 31:20 11 41
D W D W W
4 24 11 8 5 36:29 7 41
W W D D D
5 24 11 6 7 34:33 1 39
W W W W L
6 24 9 10 5 34:28 6 37
W D D D D
7 23 10 5 8 28:23 5 35
W D L D D
8 23 9 6 8 30:27 3 33
D W D W D
9 23 8 8 7 25:22 3 32
L W D D W
10 23 8 7 8 28:30 -2 31
D W L D L
11 22 8 6 8 35:34 1 30
L D W D W
12 24 8 5 11 23:35 -12 29
L W L L L
13 22 7 6 9 27:26 1 27
D L D L L
14 22 6 7 9 32:35 -3 25
W L D L W
15 23 6 7 10 24:31 -7 25
L L W D L
16 24 5 10 9 24:28 -4 25
D D D D L
17 22 6 5 11 25:35 -10 23
L L W D W
18 24 5 8 11 28:39 -11 23
L D D L W
19 23 5 7 11 24:38 -14 22
L L D D L
20 22 1 8 13 23:46 -23 11
D L D L L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B