Atletico Paranaense vs Bahia Prediction & Match Analysis
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home or Draw |
61.6%
|
1.30 | |
| BTTS | Yes |
86%
|
1.70 | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 |
77.2%
|
1.93 | |
| Corners O/U | Over 7.5 Corners |
92%
|
1.83 | |
| HT / FT | Home / Home |
-
|
3.40 | |
| Correct Score | 2-1 |
-
|
9.00 |
Atletico Paranaense
Bahia
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Atletico Paranaense
29 matches
Bahia
31 matches
| Atletico Paranaense | Statistic | Bahia |
|---|---|---|
| 13 | Wins | 14 |
| 7 | Draws | 10 |
| 9 | Losses | 7 |
| 42 | Goals For | 48 |
| 34 | Goals Against | 38 |
| 1.45 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.55 |
| 1.17 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.23 |
| 16 | BTTS Yes | 20 |
| 21 | Over 1.5 | 26 |
| 14 | Over 2.5 | 16 |
| 7 | Over 3.5 | 8 |
| 8 | Clean Sheets | 8 |
| 7 | Failed To Score | 5 |
| 4.89 | Shots On Goal | 4.86 |
| 12.33 | Total Shots | 14.41 |
| 4.67 | Corners | 5.69 |
| 46.4% | Ball Possession | 55.6% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Bahia. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Atletico Paranaense expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Bahia in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Bahia having the stronger overall control.
Placed 3 with 46 points from 27 outings, Atletico Paranaense continue to operate from a strong competitive position. The record of 13 wins, 7 draws, and 7 defeats, together with a 41:31 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through K. Viveros (18 goals), S. Mendoza (4 goals), Leozinho (4 goals), with creative support from João Cruz (5 assists), G. Benavídez (5 assists), L. Esquivel (4 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. At home, the record of 8 wins, 4 draws, and 1 losses points toward a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.
Bahia come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 5 place with 43 points after 26 matches. With 11 wins, 10 draws, and 5 defeats plus a goal balance of 40:32, they continue to show good form and are on a winning streak. Their attacking quality is driven by Luciano Juba (7 goals), Everaldo (4 goals), David Duarte (3 goals), with creative support from Éverton Ribeiro (4 assists), Rodrigo Nestor (3 assists), Jean Lucas (2 assists), and at the back they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed 6 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.
Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Atletico Paranaense won 7 times, Bahia won 5 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 16:16 from Atletico Paranaense's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.13 goals per game.
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 28 | 18 | 6 | 4 | 55:23 | 32 | 60 |
W
W
W
W
W
|
|
| 2 | 28 | 16 | 9 | 3 | 47:21 | 26 | 57 |
D
W
D
D
W
|
|
| 3 |
Atletico Paranaense
Home
|
28 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 43:32 | 11 | 49 |
W
D
L
D
W
|
| 4 | 28 | 13 | 9 | 6 | 44:36 | 8 | 48 |
W
L
W
D
W
|
|
| 5 |
Bahia
Away
|
28 | 12 | 10 | 6 | 43:35 | 8 | 46 |
L
W
W
W
W
|
| 6 | 28 | 13 | 6 | 9 | 42:40 | 2 | 45 |
W
L
W
L
W
|
|
| 7 | 28 | 12 | 7 | 9 | 37:32 | 5 | 43 |
W
D
W
L
W
|
|
| 8 | 28 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 43:41 | 2 | 41 |
W
W
W
W
W
|
|
| 9 | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 37:43 | -6 | 38 |
L
D
L
W
W
|
|
| 10 | 29 | 10 | 7 | 12 | 34:33 | 1 | 37 |
D
L
L
D
L
|
|
| 11 | 28 | 10 | 6 | 12 | 33:32 | 1 | 36 |
L
W
L
W
W
|
|
| 12 | 29 | 10 | 6 | 13 | 32:42 | -10 | 36 |
W
L
D
W
L
|
|
| 13 | 28 | 9 | 8 | 11 | 41:45 | -4 | 35 |
L
W
D
D
L
|
|
| 14 | 29 | 8 | 9 | 12 | 34:43 | -9 | 33 |
D
W
D
W
L
|
|
| 15 | 29 | 8 | 8 | 13 | 30:34 | -4 | 32 |
L
L
L
L
L
|
|
| 16 | 27 | 8 | 7 | 12 | 34:41 | -7 | 31 |
W
W
L
W
L
|
|
| 17 | 29 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 32:37 | -5 | 31 |
W
L
W
L
L
|
|
| 18 | 29 | 7 | 9 | 13 | 31:39 | -8 | 30 |
D
D
L
L
L
|
|
| 19 | 29 | 5 | 9 | 15 | 33:48 | -15 | 24 |
D
L
L
L
L
|
|
| 20 | 28 | 3 | 9 | 16 | 29:57 | -28 | 18 |
L
D
L
W
L
|