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BRAZIL › SERIE A
20.09.2026 22:30
Arena da Baixada
Referee: Anderson Daronco, Brazil
Atletico Paranaense
Match Timeline
Bahia
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
16'
Lucas Esquivel · Assist: Kerwin Vargas
Atletico Paranaense
⚽
26'
Erick Pulga
Bahia
🟨
30'
Nicolás Acevedo
Bahia
🟨
38'
Juan Felipe Aguirre
Atletico Paranaense
🟨
45'
Arthur Dias
Atletico Paranaense
🔄
46'
Juan Felipe Aguirre ↔ Dudu
Atletico Paranaense
🔄
46'
Leozinho ↔ Jorge Rivaldo
Atletico Paranaense
🔄
64'
Ademir ↔ Kauê Furquim
Bahia
🔄
64'
Erick ↔ Jean Lucas
Bahia
⚽
69'
Jorge Rivaldo · Assist: Kerwin Vargas
Atletico Paranaense
🔄
73'
Nicolás Acevedo ↔ Caio Alexandre
Bahia
🟨
74'
Kauê Furquim
Bahia
🔄
79'
Kerwin Vargas ↔ Bruno Zapelli
Atletico Paranaense
🔄
80'
Gilberto ↔ Gilberto Junior
Atletico Paranaense
🟨
85'
Rodrigo Nestor
Bahia
🔄
85'
Rodrigo Nestor ↔ Everton Ribeiro
Bahia
🔄
85'
Alejo Véliz ↔ Everaldo
Bahia
🟨
89'
Jorge Rivaldo
Atletico Paranaense
⚽
90+5'
Everaldo
Bahia
VAR
90+1'
Everaldo
Bahia

Atletico Paranaense vs Bahia Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 61.6%
Odds 1.30
BTTS
Yes
Probability 86%
Odds 1.70
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds 1.93
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
61.6%
1.30 ▥
BTTS Yes
86%
1.70 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
1.93 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.83 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.40 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Atletico Paranaense Win 41.1%
Draw 20.5%
Bahia Win 38.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Atletico Paranaense1.36
Bahia1.4
Recent Form (Last 5)
Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense
WWDLW
42 GF / 34 GA
Bahia Bahia
WLDWL
48 GF / 38 GA
Key Stats
1.45
Average Goals Scored
1.55
1.17
Average Goals Conceded
1.23
16
BTTS Yes
20
14
Over 2.5
16
4.89
Shots on Goal
4.86

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 29 matches
Bahia Bahia 31 matches
Atletico Paranaense Statistic Bahia
13 Wins 14
7 Draws 10
9 Losses 7
42 Goals For 48
34 Goals Against 38
1.45 Avg Goals Scored 1.55
1.17 Avg Goals Conceded 1.23
16 BTTS Yes 20
21 Over 1.5 26
14 Over 2.5 16
7 Over 3.5 8
8 Clean Sheets 8
7 Failed To Score 5
4.89 Shots On Goal 4.86
12.33 Total Shots 14.41
4.67 Corners 5.69
46.4% Ball Possession 55.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Bahia. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Atletico Paranaense expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Bahia in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Bahia having the stronger overall control.

Atletico Paranaense Analysis

Placed 3 with 46 points from 27 outings, Atletico Paranaense continue to operate from a strong competitive position. The record of 13 wins, 7 draws, and 7 defeats, together with a 41:31 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through K. Viveros (18 goals), S. Mendoza (4 goals), Leozinho (4 goals), with creative support from João Cruz (5 assists), G. Benavídez (5 assists), L. Esquivel (4 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. At home, the record of 8 wins, 4 draws, and 1 losses points toward a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Bahia Analysis

Bahia come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 5 place with 43 points after 26 matches. With 11 wins, 10 draws, and 5 defeats plus a goal balance of 40:32, they continue to show good form and are on a winning streak. Their attacking quality is driven by Luciano Juba (7 goals), Everaldo (4 goals), David Duarte (3 goals), with creative support from Éverton Ribeiro (4 assists), Rodrigo Nestor (3 assists), Jean Lucas (2 assists), and at the back they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed 6 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Atletico Paranaense won 7 times, Bahia won 5 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 16:16 from Atletico Paranaense's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.13 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (79.5%)
Predicted formations: Atletico Paranaense 3-4-2-1 / Bahia 4-3-3
Missing players: Atletico Paranaense 4, Bahia 3
H2H summary: Atletico Paranaense wins 7, draws 3, Bahia wins 5

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 28 18 6 4 55:23 32 60
W W W W W
2 28 16 9 3 47:21 26 57
D W D D W
3 28 14 7 7 43:32 11 49
W D L D W
4 28 13 9 6 44:36 8 48
W L W D W
5
Bahia Away
28 12 10 6 43:35 8 46
L W W W W
6 28 13 6 9 42:40 2 45
W L W L W
7 28 12 7 9 37:32 5 43
W D W L W
8 28 11 8 9 43:41 2 41
W W W W W
9 28 10 8 10 37:43 -6 38
L D L W W
10 29 10 7 12 34:33 1 37
D L L D L
11 28 10 6 12 33:32 1 36
L W L W W
12 29 10 6 13 32:42 -10 36
W L D W L
13 28 9 8 11 41:45 -4 35
L W D D L
14 29 8 9 12 34:43 -9 33
D W D W L
15 29 8 8 13 30:34 -4 32
L L L L L
16 27 8 7 12 34:41 -7 31
W W L W L
17 29 7 10 12 32:37 -5 31
W L W L L
18 29 7 9 13 31:39 -8 30
D D L L L
19 29 5 9 15 33:48 -15 24
D L L L L
20 28 3 9 16 29:57 -28 18
L D L W L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B