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SPAIN › LA LIGA
09.05.2026 16:30
Metropolitano Stadium
Referee: I. Galech
Atletico Madrid
Match Timeline
Celta Vigo
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
19'
Ilaix Moriba
Celta Vigo
🔄
20'
J. M. Gimenez ↔ R. Le Normand
Atletico Madrid
🔄
60'
A. Lookman ↔ N. Molina
Atletico Madrid
🔄
61'
A. Griezmann ↔ T. Almada
Atletico Madrid
⚽
62'
B. Iglesias · Assist: W. Swedberg
Celta Vigo
🟨
66'
Alex Baena
Atletico Madrid
🔄
68'
P. Duran ↔ I. Aspas
Celta Vigo
🔄
68'
B. Iglesias ↔ F. Jutgla
Celta Vigo
🔄
68'
A. Nunez ↔ S. Carreira
Celta Vigo
🔄
69'
A. Baena ↔ O. Vargas
Atletico Madrid
🔄
69'
↔ M. Cubo
Atletico Madrid
🟨
77'
Fer López
Celta Vigo
🔄
77'
W. Swedberg ↔ H. Alvarez
Celta Vigo
🔄
89'
O. Mingueza ↔ M. Ristic
Celta Vigo

Atletico Madrid vs Celta Vigo Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 84.5%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 17.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 24.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
84.5%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
17.4%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
24.1%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
82.6%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-0
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Atletico Madrid Win 49.4%
Draw 15.5%
Celta Vigo Win 35.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Atletico Madrid1.67
Celta Vigo1.39
Recent Form (Last 5)
Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid
WWDLW
108 GF / 72 GA
Celta Vigo Celta Vigo
WLDWL
74 GF / 65 GA
Key Stats
1.93
Average Goals Scored
1.45
1.29
Average Goals Conceded
1.27
33
BTTS Yes
33
34
Over 2.5
27
5.25
Shots on Goal
4.1

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 56 matches
Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 51 matches
Atletico Madrid Statistic Celta Vigo
30 Wins 20
10 Draws 15
16 Losses 16
108 Goals For 74
72 Goals Against 65
1.93 Avg Goals Scored 1.45
1.29 Avg Goals Conceded 1.27
33 BTTS Yes 33
46 Over 1.5 43
34 Over 2.5 27
22 Over 3.5 12
17 Clean Sheets 13
7 Failed To Score 8
5.25 Shots On Goal 4.1
13.41 Total Shots 10.63
5.84 Corners 3.94
52% Ball Possession 49.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Atletico Madrid expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Celta Vigo in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Celta Vigo having the stronger overall control. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Celta Vigo.

Atletico Madrid Analysis

Atletico Madrid sit 4 with 63 points after 34 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 19 wins, 6 draws, and 9 defeats, and the 58:37 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on A. Sorloth (12 goals), J. Alvarez (8 goals), A. Griezmann (7 goals), with creative support from G. Simeone (6 assists), J. Alvarez (4 assists), Marcos Llorente (4 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. At home, they have managed 14 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, a return that supports a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms they often show balanced attacking football.

Celta Vigo Analysis

Celta Vigo approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 6 with 47 points from 34 matches. Across the season they have posted 12 wins, 11 draws, and 11 defeats, and the 48:44 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on B. Iglesias (13 goals), Ferran Jutglà (7 goals), Iago Aspas (5 goals), with creative support from J. Rueda (5 assists), Williot Swedberg (4 assists), Óscar Mingueza (4 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, the split record of 7 wins, 6 draws, and 4 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football approach still suggests balanced attacking football.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (84.5%)
Predicted formations: Atletico Madrid 4-4-2 / Celta Vigo 3-4-2-1
Missing players: Atletico Madrid 5, Celta Vigo 4

Standings

Primera División
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 31 1 6 95:36 59 94
L W L W W
2 38 27 5 6 77:35 42 86
W W W L W
3 38 22 6 10 72:46 26 72
W L L D W
4 38 21 6 11 62:44 18 69
L W W L W
5 38 15 15 8 59:48 11 60
W L W D W
6 38 14 12 12 53:48 5 54
W D L W W
7 38 15 6 17 32:38 -6 51
W L W D L
8 38 12 14 12 41:44 -3 50
W W D D W
9 38 13 10 15 46:55 -9 49
W W D W L
10 38 11 13 14 59:61 -2 46
D L D D L
11 38 12 10 16 43:55 -12 46
D W W L L
12 38 13 6 19 43:58 -15 45
L D L L W
13 38 12 7 19 46:60 -14 43
L L W W W
14 38 11 10 17 44:56 -12 43
L W W D L
15 38 10 13 15 49:57 -8 43
D W L D L
16 38 11 9 18 47:61 -14 42
L W W W L
17 38 11 9 18 44:50 -6 42
L L L L L
18 38 11 9 18 47:57 -10 42
W L L D W
19 38 9 14 15 39:55 -16 41
D L D D L
20 38 6 11 21 26:60 -34 29
L L L D L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - LaLiga2