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29.04.2026 19:00
Metropolitano Stadium
Referee: D. Makkelie
Atletico Madrid
Match Timeline
Arsenal
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
44'
V. Gyokeres
Arsenal
🔄
46'
G. Simeone ↔ R. Le Normand
Atletico Madrid
VAR
55'
Marcos Llorente
Atletico Madrid
⚽
56'
J. Alvarez
Atletico Madrid
🔄
58'
M. Odegaard ↔ E. Eze
Arsenal
🔄
68'
N. Madueke ↔ B. Saka
Arsenal
🔄
68'
G. Martinelli ↔ L. Trossard
Arsenal
🔄
69'
V. Gyökeres ↔ Gabriel Jesus
Arsenal
🔄
77'
J. Alvarez ↔ A. Baena
Atletico Madrid
🟨
78'
Dávid Hancko
Atletico Madrid
VAR
80'
Eberechi Eze
Arsenal
🔄
86'
B. White ↔ C. Mosquera
Arsenal
🔄
88'
J. Cardoso ↔ N. Molina
Atletico Madrid

Atletico Madrid vs Arsenal Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 85.6%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 34.3%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 29.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
85.6%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
34.3%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
29.3%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT 2-2
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-0
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Atletico Madrid Win 33.9%
Draw 14.4%
Arsenal Win 51.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Atletico Madrid1.47
Arsenal1.75
Recent Form (Last 5)
Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid
WWDLW
105 GF / 70 GA
Arsenal Arsenal
WLDWL
102 GF / 35 GA
Key Stats
1.98
Average Goals Scored
2.04
1.32
Average Goals Conceded
0.7
32
BTTS Yes
24
34
Over 2.5
28
5.34
Shots on Goal
5.4

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 53 matches
Arsenal Arsenal 50 matches
Atletico Madrid Statistic Arsenal
29 Wins 35
9 Draws 9
15 Losses 6
105 Goals For 102
70 Goals Against 35
1.98 Avg Goals Scored 2.04
1.32 Avg Goals Conceded 0.7
32 BTTS Yes 24
44 Over 1.5 39
34 Over 2.5 28
22 Over 3.5 15
16 Clean Sheets 25
6 Failed To Score 4
5.34 Shots On Goal 5.4
13.28 Total Shots 14.96
5.89 Corners 6.04
52.2% Ball Possession 56%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This knockout meeting sets up as a clash between two sides with a fairly similar football identity, where game management could be just as important as attacking output. Both teams have notable availability concerns, so squad depth and in-game adjustments could matter more than usual. Arsenal have the edge after taking the first leg 4-0, leaving Atletico Madrid needing to respond to a 4-goal deficit. In the previous meeting, Arsenal controlled more possession in the first leg (52% against 48%). Arsenal carried the greater threat on target, finishing with 8 shots on goal compared to 1. Arsenal circulated the ball more often, making 421 passes to 394 and completing 378. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Arsenal. Arsenal carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 24 points while Atletico Madrid sit 14 on 13, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Arsenal look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Atletico Madrid expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Arsenal in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Arsenal having the stronger overall control.

Atletico Madrid Analysis

Atletico Madrid enter this tie with a season profile built on 13 points from 8 matches, placing them 14 in their league. Their record of 4 wins, 1 draws, and 3 defeats with goals at 17:15 reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking weight falls on J. Alvarez (9 goals), A. Sorloth (6 goals), M. Llorente (5 goals), with creative support from A. Griezmann (5 assists), J. Alvarez (4 assists), Matteo Ruggeri (3 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, their split of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically they continue to show balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with P. Barrios, J. M. Gimenez, N. Gonzalez unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

Arsenal Analysis

Ahead of this knockout test, Arsenal arrive from a league campaign that has them 1 with 24 points after 8 matches. Their record of 8 wins, 0 draws, and 0 defeats with goals at 23:4 reflects very strong form and are on a winning streak. Much of their attacking weight falls on G. Martinelli (6 goals), V. Gyokeres (4 goals), K. Havertz (3 goals), with creative support from L. Trossard (4 assists), G. Martinelli (2 assists), V. Gyokeres (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, they have managed 4 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, which supports a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In tactical terms they still look like a side built around balanced attacking football. Although they are without M. Merino, J. Timber, K. Havertz, that absence is especially important because it affects one of their main scoring outlets.

H2H Analysis

Across those 6 head-to-head meetings, Atletico Madrid won 1 times, Arsenal won 2 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 4:8 from Atletico Madrid's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (85.6%)
Predicted formations: Atletico Madrid 4-4-2 / Arsenal 4-3-3
Missing players: Atletico Madrid 3, Arsenal 3
H2H summary: Atletico Madrid wins 1, draws 3, Arsenal wins 2

Standings

UEFA Champions League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 8 8 0 0 23:4 19 24
W W W W W
2 8 7 0 1 22:8 14 21
W W W L W
3 8 6 0 2 20:8 12 18
W W W L W
4 8 5 2 1 17:7 10 17
W W W L W
5 8 5 1 2 22:14 8 16
W W W L D
6 8 5 1 2 17:10 7 16
W W L W D
7 8 5 1 2 17:11 6 16
W W L W D
8 8 5 1 2 15:9 6 16
W L W L W
9 8 5 0 3 21:12 9 15
L W L W L
10 8 5 0 3 15:7 8 15
W L L L W
11 8 4 2 2 21:11 10 14
D L D W L
12 8 4 2 2 17:7 10 14
D W D L W
13 8 3 4 1 14:10 4 13
D W W W D
14 8 4 1 3 17:15 2 13
L D W W W
15 8 4 1 3 10:10 0 13
L L W W W
16 8 3 3 2 13:14 -1 12
W L D W W
17 8 3 2 3 19:17 2 11
L L D W L
18 8 3 2 3 10:14 -4 11
W W W L D
19 8 3 1 4 15:17 -2 10
W W L L D
20 8 3 1 4 9:11 -2 10
L D L L W
21 8 2 4 2 8:14 -6 10
D L W D W
22 8 3 1 4 13:21 -8 10
L W L L D
23 8 2 3 3 14:15 -1 9
W W D L L
24 8 3 0 5 10:12 -2 9
W L W W L
25 8 3 0 5 11:14 -3 9
L L W W L
26 8 2 3 3 8:11 -3 9
W L L D W
27 8 3 0 5 8:17 -9 9
W L L W L
28 8 2 2 4 16:16 0 8
L L L W D
29 8 2 2 4 9:14 -5 8
L W D D L
30 8 2 2 4 9:15 -6 8
L D L W D
31 8 2 2 4 12:21 -9 8
L D W W L
32 8 2 0 6 8:21 -13 6
L W W L L
33 8 1 1 6 10:21 -11 4
L L L L D
34 8 0 3 5 5:19 -14 3
L L L D L
35 8 0 1 7 5:18 -13 1
L L L L L
36 8 0 1 7 7:22 -15 1
L L L L L
Promotion - Champions League (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - Champions League (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)