ARGENTINA › PRIMERA NACIONAL
04.10.2026 20:30
Estadio Nuevo Monumental
Atletico DE Rafaela
Match Timeline
Atlanta
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
1'
A. Quintana
Atlanta
⚽
25'
M. Garcia
Atletico DE Rafaela
⚽
41'
F. Alvarez · Assist: A. Quintana
Atlanta
🟨
52'
J. Bonifacio
Atletico DE Rafaela
🟨
54'
F. Jourdan
Atletico DE Rafaela
🟨
57'
A. Solveyra
Atletico DE Rafaela
🔄
61'
F. Jourdan ↔ M. Moreno
Atletico DE Rafaela
🔄
61'
A. Rodriguez ↔ M. Pardo
Atletico DE Rafaela
🔄
65'
D. Arguello ↔ R. Sosa
Atlanta
🔄
65'
I. Rodriguez ↔ A. Morales
Atlanta
⚽
71'
B. Rivero · Assist: A. Morales
Atlanta
🟨
78'
M. Moreno
Atletico DE Rafaela
🔄
79'
L. Flores ↔ F. Soloa
Atletico DE Rafaela
🔄
79'
L. Moscoloni ↔ J. Cavallaro
Atletico DE Rafaela
🔄
79'
J. Capurro ↔ M. Quiroga
Atletico DE Rafaela
🔄
81'
F. Alvarez ↔ L. Galeano
Atlanta
🔄
81'
B. Rivero ↔ C. Bernardi
Atlanta
⚽
81'
L. Galeano · Assist: T. Rojas
Atlanta
🔄
88'
A. Morales ↔ G. Mendoza
Atlanta
⚽
90'
M. Quiroga · Assist: L. Albertengo
Atletico DE Rafaela

Atletico DE Rafaela vs Atlanta Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 58.1%
Odds 2.71
BTTS
No
Probability 50.8%
Odds 1.53
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 51.1%
Odds 1.40
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
58.1%
2.71 ▥
BTTS No
50.8%
1.53 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
51.1%
1.40 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
1.50 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
4.75 ▥
Correct Score 2-0
-
12.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Atletico DE Rafaela Win 58.1%
Draw 4.3%
Atlanta Win 37.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Atletico DE Rafaela0.84
Atlanta1.03
Recent Form (Last 5)
Atletico DE Rafaela Atletico DE Rafaela
WWDLW
25 GF / 30 GA
Atlanta Atlanta
WLDWL
35 GF / 30 GA
Key Stats
0.78
Average Goals Scored
1.09
0.94
Average Goals Conceded
0.94
10
BTTS Yes
11
9
Over 2.5
11
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Atletico DE Rafaela Atletico DE Rafaela 32 matches
Atlanta Atlanta 32 matches
Atletico DE Rafaela Statistic Atlanta
11 Wins 16
9 Draws 4
12 Losses 12
25 Goals For 35
30 Goals Against 30
0.78 Avg Goals Scored 1.09
0.94 Avg Goals Conceded 0.94
10 BTTS Yes 11
15 Over 1.5 18
9 Over 2.5 11
3 Over 3.5 5
15 Clean Sheets 15
14 Failed To Score 9
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights Atlanta's more proactive style and Atletico DE Rafaela's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Atlanta. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Atlanta having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Atletico DE Rafaela Analysis

Atletico DE Rafaela sit 8 with 42 points after 30 league matches. The record of 11 wins, 9 draws, and 10 defeats, together with a 25:26 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through their main attacking players, while at the back they have looked fairly stable. At home, their split return of 10 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses fits a very strong split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Atlanta Analysis

Placed 4 with 49 points from 30 outings, Atlanta continue to operate from a strong competitive position. The record of 15 wins, 4 draws, and 11 defeats, together with a 34:28 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through their main attacking players, while at the back they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, the record of 6 wins, 2 draws, and 7 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 6 head-to-head meetings, Atletico DE Rafaela won 2 times, Atlanta won 2 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 3:4 from Atletico DE Rafaela's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 0 matches, with an average of 1.17 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.7%)
Predicted formations: Atletico DE Rafaela 4-2-3-1 / Atlanta -
H2H summary: Atletico DE Rafaela wins 2, draws 2, Atlanta wins 2

Standings

Group 2
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 32 15 13 4 32:15 17 58
D W D D D
2 32 15 11 6 38:26 12 56
W L W D W
3 32 17 4 11 38:30 8 55
W W D W W
4 32 15 9 8 48:40 8 54
L D D W W
5 32 13 9 10 34:26 8 48
D L W W L
6 32 13 9 10 32:28 4 48
L W L D W
7 32 13 7 12 32:31 1 46
W W L W L
8 32 12 9 11 34:32 2 45
L L W D L
9 31 12 8 11 38:31 7 44
W D D D L
10 32 10 13 9 35:32 3 43
W D L W L
11 32 11 9 12 27:30 -3 42
L L W L L
12 32 10 9 13 30:27 3 39
D W L W L
13 32 10 8 14 28:38 -10 38
W L L D L
14 32 9 10 13 26:35 -9 37
D L W L W
15 31 9 9 13 23:29 -6 36
W D L W L
16 32 6 16 10 27:32 -5 34
L W D D D
17 32 9 6 17 24:33 -9 33
W L W L L
18 32 5 8 19 23:54 -31 23
L L L L L
Promotion - Primera Nacional (Super final)
Promotion - Primera Nacional (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation