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BRAZIL › SERIE B
01.10.2026 23:30
Estadio Joaquim Portugal
Referee: Joao Vitor Gobi
Athletic Club
Match Timeline
Sport Recife
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
14'
Neto Pessoa · Assist: Juan Alano
Sport Recife
🔄
20'
Marlon Douglas ↔ de Pena Carlos
Sport Recife
⚽
24'
Kauan Rodrigues · Assist: Yago Santos
Athletic Club
🟨
26'
Maswel Ananias Silva
Athletic Club
⚽
34'
de Pena Carlos · Assist: Claudinho
Sport Recife
🔄
42'
Pedro Oliveira ↔ W. Aponza
Athletic Club
🔄
46'
Juan Alano ↔ Patrick de Paula
Sport Recife
🔄
59'
Yago Santos ↔ Yarlen
Athletic Club
🟨
65'
Biel
Sport Recife
🟨
65'
Carlos María de Pena Bonino
Sport Recife
🔄
70'
Biel Fonseca ↔ Ze Gabriel
Sport Recife
🔄
70'
Neto Pessoa ↔ Pedro Perotti
Sport Recife
🟨
73'
Kauan Gabriel Cordeiro Lindes
Athletic Club
🔄
73'
Joao Miguel ↔ Felipe Negrucci
Athletic Club
🔄
73'
Enzo Santos ↔ Bruninho
Athletic Club
🔄
73'
Douglas Pele ↔ D. Vera
Athletic Club
🔄
90+4'
↔ Edson Lucas
Sport Recife

Athletic Club vs Sport Recife Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 56.8%
Odds 2.71
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds 1.83
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds 2.38
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
56.8%
2.71 ▥
BTTS Yes
78.8%
1.83 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
2.38 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
78.3%
1.15 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
4.33 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
11.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Athletic Club Win 56.8%
Draw 6.8%
Sport Recife Win 36.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Athletic Club1.15
Sport Recife1.24
Recent Form (Last 5)
Athletic Club Athletic Club
WWDLW
36 GF / 33 GA
Sport Recife Sport Recife
WLDWL
40 GF / 32 GA
Key Stats
1.2
Average Goals Scored
1.33
1.1
Average Goals Conceded
1.07
17
BTTS Yes
19
11
Over 2.5
15
3.3
Shots on Goal
4.2

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Athletic Club Athletic Club 30 matches
Sport Recife Sport Recife 30 matches
Athletic Club Statistic Sport Recife
10 Wins 11
12 Draws 11
8 Losses 8
36 Goals For 40
33 Goals Against 32
1.2 Avg Goals Scored 1.33
1.1 Avg Goals Conceded 1.07
17 BTTS Yes 19
23 Over 1.5 23
11 Over 2.5 15
5 Over 3.5 5
8 Clean Sheets 10
8 Failed To Score 4
3.3 Shots On Goal 4.2
11.1 Total Shots 14.23
4.07 Corners 4.93
43.9% Ball Possession 54.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Sport Recife. Sport Recife arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

Athletic Club Analysis

So far, Athletic Club have built a campaign that leaves them 13 in the table on 41 points from 29 matches. The record of 10 wins, 11 draws, and 8 defeats, together with a 34:31 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Ronaldo Tavares (5 goals), Ian Luccas (4 goals), W. Aponza (4 goals), with creative support from Max (4 assists), Ian Luccas (2 assists), Lucas Belezi (2 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. At home, they have returned 6 wins, 5 draws, and 4 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Sport Recife Analysis

Sport Recife approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 9 with 44 points from 29 matches. Across the season they have posted 11 wins, 11 draws, and 7 defeats, and the 39:29 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Chrystian Barletta (8 goals), Perotti (7 goals), Madson (2 goals), with creative support from Chrystian Barletta (3 assists), Biel (3 assists), Madson (2 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 4 wins, 4 draws, and 6 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Athletic Club won 1 times, Sport Recife won 0 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 4:2 from Athletic Club's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (93.2%)
Predicted formations: Athletic Club 4-2-3-1 / Sport Recife 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Athletic Club wins 1, draws 1, Sport Recife wins 0

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 31 17 6 8 44:31 13 57
W W W D W
2 31 16 8 7 35:19 16 56
W W L L W
3 31 15 9 7 52:27 25 54
W D L D W
4 31 15 8 8 33:27 6 53
W W L L L
5 31 14 11 6 36:27 9 53
D D W D W
6 31 14 10 7 39:27 12 52
W W L W W
7 32 13 11 8 44:34 10 50
W W L W L
8 31 14 6 11 46:44 2 48
L W L W L
9 31 13 9 9 43:41 2 48
L D W D W
10 31 11 13 7 32:25 7 46
W L W D W
11 32 13 6 13 32:40 -8 45
W L L W W
12 32 12 9 11 44:34 10 45
L W D W W
13 31 11 9 11 39:38 1 42
D W L D L
14 32 10 12 10 38:37 1 42
L L D D W
15 31 10 9 12 34:39 -5 39
W D W D L
16 31 9 8 14 34:37 -3 35
L W D L L
17 31 8 6 17 30:42 -12 30
L L L D L
18 31 7 7 17 39:45 -6 28
L L L W W
19 31 4 5 22 21:52 -31 17
L L L L W
20 31 3 4 24 17:66 -49 13
L L W L L
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