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ITALY › SERIE A
18.04.2026 18:45
Stadio Olimpico
Referee: M. Marcenaro
AS Roma
Match Timeline
Atalanta
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
12'
N. Krstovic · Assist: M. De Roon
Atalanta
⚽
45'
M. Hermoso · Assist: D. Rensch
AS Roma
🔄
46'
S. Kolasinac ↔ H. Ahanor
Atalanta
🔄
46'
G. Scalvini ↔ O. Kossounou
Atalanta
🔄
46'
C. De Ketelaere ↔ N. Zalewski
Atalanta
🔄
54'
R. Bellanova ↔ L. Bernasconi
Atalanta
🔄
60'
N. El Aynaoui ↔ N. Pisilli
AS Roma
🔄
60'
G. Mancini ↔ D. Ghilardi
AS Roma
🔄
60'
S. El Shaarawy ↔ L. Venturino
AS Roma
🟨
65'
Éderson
Atalanta
🔄
71'
M. Soule ↔ R. Vaz
AS Roma
🟨
75'
Niccolò Pisilli
AS Roma
🔄
78'
D. Rensch ↔ K. Tsimikas
AS Roma
🔄
80'
Ederson ↔ M. Pasalic
Atalanta
🟨
90+1'
Berat Djimsiti
Atalanta

AS Roma vs Atalanta Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 54%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 72.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 71%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
54%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
72.5%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
71%
- ▥
Probability Distribution
AS Roma Win 54%
Draw 0%
Atalanta Win 46%
Expected Goals (xG)
AS Roma1.35
Atalanta1.27
Recent Form (Last 5)
AS Roma AS Roma
WWDLW
64 GF / 42 GA
Atalanta Atalanta
WLDWL
69 GF / 53 GA
Key Stats
1.49
Average Goals Scored
1.47
0.98
Average Goals Conceded
1.13
18
BTTS Yes
23
18
Over 2.5
23
4.49
Shots on Goal
4.57

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

AS Roma AS Roma 43 matches
Atalanta Atalanta 47 matches
AS Roma Statistic Atalanta
23 Wins 21
5 Draws 13
15 Losses 13
64 Goals For 69
42 Goals Against 53
1.49 Avg Goals Scored 1.47
0.98 Avg Goals Conceded 1.13
18 BTTS Yes 23
29 Over 1.5 36
18 Over 2.5 23
7 Over 3.5 12
17 Clean Sheets 17
8 Failed To Score 10
4.49 Shots On Goal 4.57
13.23 Total Shots 14.62
5.02 Corners 5.32
55.6% Ball Possession 53.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. AS Roma appear more affected by absences, and that imbalance in squad availability could shift some of the structural advantage toward Atalanta. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Atalanta. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. AS Roma have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors.

AS Roma Analysis

AS Roma sit 6 with 57 points after 32 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 18 wins, 3 draws, and 11 defeats with a 45:28 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on D. Malen (10 goals), M. Soule (6 goals), L. Pellegrini (4 goals), with creative support from M. Soule (5 assists), D. Rensch (3 assists), L. Pellegrini (2 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. At home, the split record of 11 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses points to a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football approach still suggests balanced attacking football. Although they are without Wesley Franca, M. Kone, L. Pellegrini, the biggest concern is that one of those absentees also contributes heavily in both finishing and chance creation.

Atalanta Analysis

Atalanta sit 7 with 53 points after 32 league matches. The record of 14 wins, 11 draws, and 7 defeats, together with a 44:28 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through N. Krstovic (9 goals), G. Scamacca (8 goals), C. De Ketelaere (3 goals), with creative support from C. De Ketelaere (5 assists), N. Zalewski (5 assists), N. Krstovic (4 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 5 wins, 6 draws, and 4 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with K. Sulemana, I. Hien unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, AS Roma won 2 times, Atalanta won 9 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 16:26 from AS Roma's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 2.8 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: AS Roma 3-4-2-1 / Atalanta 3-4-2-1
Missing players: AS Roma 6, Atalanta 2
H2H summary: AS Roma wins 2, draws 4, Atalanta wins 9

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 27 6 5 89:35 54 87
D D W W D
2 38 23 7 8 58:36 22 76
W W L D W
3 38 23 4 11 59:31 28 73
W W W W W
4 38 20 11 7 65:29 36 71
W W W D W
5 38 20 10 8 53:35 18 70
L W L L D
6 38 19 12 7 61:34 27 69
D L W D D
7 38 15 14 9 51:36 15 59
D L W D L
8 38 16 8 14 49:46 3 56
D W W D L
9 38 14 12 12 41:40 1 54
W L L W D
10 38 14 8 16 45:48 -3 50
L L W W D
11 38 14 7 17 46:50 -4 49
L L L W D
12 38 12 9 17 44:63 -19 45
D L W L D
13 38 11 12 15 28:46 -18 45
W L L L W
14 38 11 10 17 40:53 -13 43
W W L D W
15 38 9 15 14 41:50 -9 42
D W D L D
16 38 10 11 17 41:51 -10 41
L L D D L
17 38 10 8 20 28:50 -22 38
W W L W D
18 38 8 10 20 32:57 -25 34
L W W L L
19 38 3 12 23 25:61 -36 21
L D L D D
20 38 2 12 24 26:71 -45 18
L L L L L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Serie B