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BULGARIA › FIRST LEAGUE
19.09.2026 16:00
Arena Arda
Referee: Georgi Kabakov, Bulgaria
Arda Kardzhali
Match Timeline
Cherno More Varna
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
46'
B. Karagaren ↔ A. Vutov
Arda Kardzhali
🟨
62'
Antonio Vutov
Arda Kardzhali
🔄
63'
A. Traore ↔ V. Lyubenov
Arda Kardzhali
🔄
63'
P. Bachev ↔ G. Nikolov
Arda Kardzhali
⚽
70'
G. Lazarov · Assist: M. Barandas
Cherno More Varna
⚽
74'
A. Vutov · Assist: D. Velkovski
Arda Kardzhali
🟨
78'
Vyacheslav Velev
Arda Kardzhali
🔄
78'
S. Ivanov ↔ A. Kabov
Arda Kardzhali
🟨
79'
Zhivko Atanasov
Cherno More Varna
🟨
81'
Georgi Lazarov
Cherno More Varna
🔄
82'
M. Barandas ↔ A. Todorov
Cherno More Varna
🔄
82'
B. Beyhan ↔ V. Panayotov
Cherno More Varna
🔄
82'
A. Donchev ↔ I. Tasev
Cherno More Varna
🟨
87'
Martin Paskalev
Arda Kardzhali
🟨
87'
Zhivko Atanasov
Cherno More Varna
🟥
87'
Zhivko Atanasov
Cherno More Varna
🔄
88'
M. Achi ↔ G. Ventsislavov
Cherno More Varna
🔄
90+5'
I. Bounaas ↔ M. Banev
Cherno More Varna

Arda Kardzhali vs Cherno More Varna Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 86.9%
Odds 1.79
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds 2.10
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds 2.28
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
86.9%
1.79 ▥
BTTS Yes
71.2%
2.10 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
2.28 ▥
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
2.33 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.75 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Arda Kardzhali Win 86.9%
Draw 6.1%
Cherno More Varna Win 7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Arda Kardzhali1.3
Cherno More Varna1.22
Recent Form (Last 5)
Arda Kardzhali Arda Kardzhali
WWDLW
26 GF / 20 GA
Cherno More Varna Cherno More Varna
WLDWL
28 GF / 25 GA
Key Stats
1.37
Average Goals Scored
1.33
1.05
Average Goals Conceded
1.19
9
BTTS Yes
9
8
Over 2.5
10
5.78
Shots on Goal
4.89

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Arda Kardzhali Arda Kardzhali 19 matches
Cherno More Varna Cherno More Varna 21 matches
Arda Kardzhali Statistic Cherno More Varna
9 Wins 8
4 Draws 5
6 Losses 8
26 Goals For 28
20 Goals Against 25
1.37 Avg Goals Scored 1.33
1.05 Avg Goals Conceded 1.19
9 BTTS Yes 9
14 Over 1.5 12
8 Over 2.5 10
4 Over 3.5 7
8 Clean Sheets 7
3 Failed To Score 6
5.78 Shots On Goal 4.89
11.78 Total Shots 10.33
3.78 Corners 5.11
54.6% Ball Possession 52.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Arda Kardzhali's more proactive style and Cherno More Varna's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Arda Kardzhali come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Cherno More Varna. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Arda Kardzhali arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 5 with 16 points compared to Cherno More Varna in 12 on 5, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself.

Arda Kardzhali Analysis

Operating from 5 place with 16 points from 8 games, Arda Kardzhali bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. With 5 wins, 1 draws, and 2 defeats plus a goal balance of 13:7, they continue to show very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Their attacking quality is driven by their main attacking players, and at the back they have appeared very solid. At home, their record of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

Cherno More Varna Analysis

Cherno More Varna approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 12 with 5 points from 9 matches. Their record of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 6 losses, together with goals at 10:19, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through their main attacking players, while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 0 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Arda Kardzhali won 3 times, Cherno More Varna won 4 times, while 8 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 18:17 from Arda Kardzhali's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.33 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94%)
Predicted formations: Arda Kardzhali 4-2-3-1 / Cherno More Varna 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Arda Kardzhali wins 3, draws 8, Cherno More Varna wins 4

Standings

A PFG
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 9 8 1 0 21:4 17 25
D W W W W
2 10 7 3 0 24:7 17 24
D W W D W
3 9 7 2 0 16:7 9 23
W W D D W
4 10 7 1 2 19:10 9 22
W W L W L
5 10 5 2 3 15:12 3 17
D L L W W
6 10 5 1 4 16:14 2 16
W W W L L
7 10 2 5 3 9:8 1 11
L D W L D
8 10 2 4 4 10:15 -5 10
L D D D L
9 10 2 3 5 9:19 -10 9
D D W L W
10 10 2 2 6 8:18 -10 8
L L L D W
11 10 1 4 5 11:18 -7 7
W L D L D
12 10 2 1 7 5:13 -8 7
D L W L L
13 10 1 3 6 11:20 -9 6
D D L L W
14 10 1 2 7 10:19 -9 5
D L L D L
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