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CHILE › PRIMERA B
11.10.2026 15:30
Estadio Regional de Antofagasta

Antofagasta vs San Marcos de Arica Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 65.3%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 70.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
65.3%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
71.2%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
70.3%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Antofagasta Win 65.3%
Draw 11.4%
San Marcos de Arica Win 23.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Antofagasta1.54
San Marcos de Arica1.04
Recent Form (Last 5)
Antofagasta Antofagasta
WWDLW
61 GF / 33 GA
San Marcos de Arica San Marcos de Arica
WLDWL
35 GF / 37 GA
Key Stats
1.79
Average Goals Scored
1.09
0.97
Average Goals Conceded
1.16
18
BTTS Yes
16
17
Over 2.5
13
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Antofagasta Antofagasta 34 matches
San Marcos de Arica San Marcos de Arica 32 matches
Antofagasta Statistic San Marcos de Arica
17 Wins 10
10 Draws 10
7 Losses 12
61 Goals For 35
33 Goals Against 37
1.79 Avg Goals Scored 1.09
0.97 Avg Goals Conceded 1.16
18 BTTS Yes 16
26 Over 1.5 23
17 Over 2.5 13
11 Over 3.5 5
13 Clean Sheets 9
7 Failed To Score 10
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors San Marcos de Arica. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward San Marcos de Arica having the stronger overall control.

Antofagasta Analysis

Placed 5 with 41 points from 26 outings, Antofagasta continue to operate from a strong competitive position. The record of 11 wins, 8 draws, and 7 defeats, together with a 44:26 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through their main attacking players, while at the back they have looked fairly stable. At home, they have returned 7 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

San Marcos de Arica Analysis

So far, San Marcos de Arica have built a campaign that leaves them 7 in the table on 39 points from 26 matches. Their overall return of 10 wins, 9 draws, and 7 losses with goals at 33:24 reflects good form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by their main attacking players, while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, their split return of 4 wins, 5 draws, and 4 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 7 head-to-head meetings, Antofagasta won 2 times, San Marcos de Arica won 2 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 13:11 from Antofagasta's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 3.43 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (88.6%)
H2H summary: Antofagasta wins 2, draws 3, San Marcos de Arica wins 2

Standings

Primera B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 26 13 9 4 44:27 17 48
W W D L W
2 26 13 8 5 41:29 12 47
W W W W W
3 26 12 8 6 41:28 13 44
L L L W W
4 26 12 7 7 42:38 4 43
W W D D L
5 26 11 8 7 44:26 18 41
W L D L W
6 26 11 8 7 38:34 4 41
W D W W D
7 26 10 9 7 33:24 9 39
W W L W L
8 26 10 7 9 40:39 1 37
W W D L L
9 26 10 6 10 32:34 -2 36
L D L D L
10 26 10 4 12 26:34 -8 34
L L L W L
11 26 8 8 10 40:36 4 32
L D W L W
12 26 7 10 9 35:30 5 31
W W L L L
13 26 6 9 11 22:39 -17 27
L L W L D
14 26 4 10 12 27:40 -13 22
L D W D D
15 26 5 7 14 16:44 -28 22
L L L D D
16 26 4 6 16 23:42 -19 18
L L W W W