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BRAZIL › SERIE B
07.10.2026 23:30
Arena Independência
Referee: Rafael Rodrigo Klein

America Mineiro vs Fortaleza EC Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 69.7%
Odds 1.93
BTTS
Yes
Probability 68.4%
Odds 1.83
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.7%
Odds 2.07
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
69.7%
1.93 ▥
BTTS Yes
68.4%
1.83 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.7%
2.07 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
91%
1.14 ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
4.75 ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
9.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
America Mineiro Win 24.7%
Draw 5.6%
Fortaleza EC Win 69.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
America Mineiro0.76
Fortaleza EC1.37
Recent Form (Last 5)
America Mineiro America Mineiro
WWDLW
21 GF / 52 GA
Fortaleza EC Fortaleza EC
WLDWL
36 GF / 27 GA
Key Stats
0.68
Average Goals Scored
1.16
1.68
Average Goals Conceded
0.87
14
BTTS Yes
14
16
Over 2.5
11
4.55
Shots on Goal
4.16

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

America Mineiro America Mineiro 31 matches
Fortaleza EC Fortaleza EC 31 matches
America Mineiro Statistic Fortaleza EC
4 Wins 14
5 Draws 11
22 Losses 6
21 Goals For 36
52 Goals Against 27
0.68 Avg Goals Scored 1.16
1.68 Avg Goals Conceded 0.87
14 BTTS Yes 14
23 Over 1.5 19
16 Over 2.5 11
4 Over 3.5 4
4 Clean Sheets 13
14 Failed To Score 8
4.55 Shots On Goal 4.16
13.55 Total Shots 13.97
5.45 Corners 5.32
53.4% Ball Possession 48.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Fortaleza EC's more proactive style and America Mineiro's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Fortaleza EC. America Mineiro have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Fortaleza EC having the stronger overall control. Fortaleza EC carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 5 with 53 points while America Mineiro sit 19 on 17, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

America Mineiro Analysis

America Mineiro approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 19 with 17 points from 31 matches. The overall return of 4 wins, 5 draws, and 22 defeats with a 21:52 goal balance points toward poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Going forward they depend heavily on Gonzalo Mastriani (4 goals), Willian (3 goals), Paulo Victor (2 goals), with creative support from Willian (2 assists), Paulo Victor (2 assists), M. Segovia (2 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, they have managed 3 wins, 3 draws, and 9 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Fortaleza EC Analysis

Placed 5 with 53 points from 31 outings, Fortaleza EC continue to operate from a strong competitive position. The record of 14 wins, 11 draws, and 6 defeats, together with a 36:27 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Vitinho (6 goals), Maílton (5 goals), Luiz Fernando (3 goals), with creative support from Maílton (2 assists), Mauricio Junior (2 assists), Lucas Gazal (1 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 5 wins, 5 draws, and 5 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 11 head-to-head meetings, America Mineiro won 4 times, Fortaleza EC won 7 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 14:21 from America Mineiro's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 3.18 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.4%)
Predicted formations: America Mineiro - / Fortaleza EC 4-3-3
H2H summary: America Mineiro wins 4, draws 0, Fortaleza EC wins 7

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 31 17 6 8 44:31 13 57
W W W D W
2 31 16 8 7 35:19 16 56
W W L L W
3 31 15 9 7 52:27 25 54
W D L D W
4 31 15 8 8 33:27 6 53
W W L L L
5 31 14 11 6 36:27 9 53
D D W D W
6 31 14 10 7 39:27 12 52
W W L W W
7 32 13 11 8 44:34 10 50
W W L W L
8 31 14 6 11 46:44 2 48
L W L W L
9 31 13 9 9 43:41 2 48
L D W D W
10 31 11 13 7 32:25 7 46
W L W D W
11 32 13 6 13 32:40 -8 45
W L L W W
12 32 12 9 11 44:34 10 45
L W D W W
13 31 11 9 11 39:38 1 42
D W L D L
14 32 10 12 10 38:37 1 42
L L D D W
15 31 10 9 12 34:39 -5 39
W D W D L
16 31 9 8 14 34:37 -3 35
L W D L L
17 31 8 6 17 30:42 -12 30
L L L D L
18 31 7 7 17 39:45 -6 28
L L L W W
19 31 4 5 22 21:52 -31 17
L L L L W
20 31 3 4 24 17:66 -49 13
L L W L L
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