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PORTUGAL › PRIMEIRA LIGA
19.09.2026 17:00
Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca
Referee: Luis Carlos Mateus Filipe, Portugal
Alverca
Match Timeline
Rio Ave
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
3'
D. Camara · Assist: Chiquinho
Alverca
🔄
59'
P. Amaral ↔ M. Vrousai
Rio Ave
🔄
59'
R. Galcik ↔ S. Clemmensen
Rio Ave
🔄
68'
Figueiredo ↔ A. Vidigal
Alverca
🔄
68'
D. Camara ↔ V. Semedo
Alverca
🔄
69'
M. Patricio ↔ M. Sellouki
Rio Ave
🔄
71'
T. Nikitscher ↔ Caike
Rio Ave
🔄
71'
J. Tome ↔ Tamble
Rio Ave
🔄
74'
Chiquinho ↔ Matheus Franca
Alverca
🔄
84'
Chissumba ↔ Y. Bojang
Alverca
🔄
84'
Rayan Lucas ↔ Ze Rafael
Alverca
🟨
87'
Simon Garcia
Rio Ave
🟨
88'
Davy Gui
Alverca
🟨
90+3'
André Vidigal
Alverca
🟨
90+5'
Francisco Petrasso
Rio Ave

Alverca vs Rio Ave Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 63.7%
Odds 1.25
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds 1.80
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds 1.96
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
63.7%
1.25 ▥
BTTS Yes
62.8%
1.80 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
1.96 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
75.4%
1.80 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.10 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
8.50 ▥
Probability Distribution
Alverca Win 39.8%
Draw 23.9%
Rio Ave Win 36.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Alverca1.48
Rio Ave1.37
Recent Form (Last 5)
Alverca Alverca
WWDLW
14 GF / 13 GA
Rio Ave Rio Ave
WLDWL
15 GF / 18 GA
Key Stats
1.27
Average Goals Scored
1.5
1.18
Average Goals Conceded
1.8
6
BTTS Yes
4
5
Over 2.5
7
3.67
Shots on Goal
2.5

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Alverca Alverca 11 matches
Rio Ave Rio Ave 10 matches
Alverca Statistic Rio Ave
5 Wins 4
2 Draws 2
4 Losses 4
14 Goals For 15
13 Goals Against 18
1.27 Avg Goals Scored 1.5
1.18 Avg Goals Conceded 1.8
6 BTTS Yes 4
8 Over 1.5 9
5 Over 2.5 7
3 Over 3.5 5
3 Clean Sheets 2
2 Failed To Score 4
3.67 Shots On Goal 2.5
10 Total Shots 7.33
4.5 Corners 3.17
43% Ball Possession 41.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Rio Ave. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Alverca expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Rio Ave in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Rio Ave having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Alverca Analysis

Alverca approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 17 with 2 points from 5 matches. Across the season they have posted 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 defeats, and the 5:10 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Vivaldo Semedo (2 goals), Ian Luccas (1 goals), Chiquinho (1 goals), with creative support from Isaac James (2 assists), Rayan (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, they have managed 0 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Rio Ave Analysis

Rio Ave approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 15 with 3 points from 5 matches. Their record of 1 wins, 0 draws, and 4 losses, together with goals at 2:11, reflects poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Much of their threat comes through J. Blesa (1 goals), Tamble Monteiro (1 goals), with creative support from J. Blesa (1 assists), Diogo Bezerra (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 4 head-to-head meetings, Alverca won 1 times, Rio Ave won 1 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 5:5 from Alverca's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 2.5 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (76.1%)
Predicted formations: Alverca 3-4-2-1 / Rio Ave 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Alverca wins 1, draws 2, Rio Ave wins 1

Standings

Primeira Liga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 7 7 0 0 18:3 15 21
W W W W W
2 8 5 3 0 20:9 11 18
W D D W W
3 7 5 1 1 22:7 15 16
L W W W W
4 7 4 3 0 11:4 7 15
D W W D W
5 7 3 2 2 10:7 3 11
D L D W L
6 7 3 2 2 6:5 1 11
W D L L D
7 7 3 2 2 8:8 0 11
L D W L W
8 7 3 2 2 9:9 0 11
W W W L D
9 7 2 4 1 14:14 0 10
L D W D W
10 7 2 2 3 9:11 -2 8
W W L D L
11 7 2 2 3 8:12 -4 8
D L L L D
12 8 2 2 4 8:15 -7 8
L D W L L
13 7 1 4 2 9:7 2 7
W D D D L
14 7 1 2 4 5:8 -3 5
D L D L W
15 7 1 1 5 7:15 -8 4
L L L L L
16 7 1 1 5 5:15 -10 4
L D L L W
17 7 1 1 5 3:16 -13 4
W L D L L
18 7 0 2 5 3:10 -7 2
L L D L L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2