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ARGENTINA › PRIMERA NACIONAL
10.10.2026 18:30
Estadio Tres de Febrero

Almagro vs Chacarita Juniors Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 88%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 70.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
88%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
67.1%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
70.3%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Almagro Win 47.4%
Draw 40.7%
Chacarita Juniors Win 12%
Expected Goals (xG)
Almagro0.94
Chacarita Juniors0.93
Recent Form (Last 5)
Almagro Almagro
WWDLW
28 GF / 38 GA
Chacarita Juniors Chacarita Juniors
WLDWL
24 GF / 33 GA
Key Stats
0.88
Average Goals Scored
0.75
1.19
Average Goals Conceded
1.03
13
BTTS Yes
9
10
Over 2.5
8
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Almagro Almagro 32 matches
Chacarita Juniors Chacarita Juniors 32 matches
Almagro Statistic Chacarita Juniors
10 Wins 9
8 Draws 6
14 Losses 17
28 Goals For 24
38 Goals Against 33
0.88 Avg Goals Scored 0.75
1.19 Avg Goals Conceded 1.03
13 BTTS Yes 9
20 Over 1.5 17
10 Over 2.5 8
4 Over 3.5 2
9 Clean Sheets 10
13 Failed To Score 16
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Chacarita Juniors. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Chacarita Juniors having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Almagro Analysis

With 38 points from 32 games and a place of 13, Almagro still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 10 wins, 8 draws, and 14 defeats with a 28:38 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked fairly stable. At home, they have managed 6 wins, 4 draws, and 6 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Chacarita Juniors Analysis

Chacarita Juniors approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 17 with 33 points from 32 matches. Their record of 9 wins, 6 draws, and 17 losses, together with goals at 24:33, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through their main attacking players, while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. Away from home, the split record of 1 wins, 3 draws, and 12 losses points to a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 12 head-to-head meetings, Almagro won 5 times, Chacarita Juniors won 6 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 12:14 from Almagro's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 2.17 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (88%)
H2H summary: Almagro wins 5, draws 1, Chacarita Juniors wins 6

Standings

Group 2
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 32 15 13 4 32:15 17 58
D W D D D
2 32 15 11 6 38:26 12 56
W L W D W
3 32 17 4 11 38:30 8 55
W W D W W
4 32 15 9 8 48:40 8 54
L D D W W
5 32 13 9 10 34:26 8 48
D L W W L
6 32 13 9 10 32:28 4 48
L W L D W
7 32 13 8 11 39:31 8 47
W W D D D
8 32 13 7 12 32:31 1 46
W W L W L
9 32 12 9 11 34:32 2 45
L L W D L
10 32 10 13 9 35:32 3 43
W D L W L
11 32 11 9 12 27:30 -3 42
L L W L L
12 32 10 9 13 30:27 3 39
D W L W L
13 32 10 8 14 28:38 -10 38
W L L D L
14 32 9 10 13 26:35 -9 37
D L W L W
15 32 9 9 14 23:30 -7 36
L W D L W
16 32 6 16 10 27:32 -5 34
L W D D D
17 32 9 6 17 24:33 -9 33
W L W L L
18 32 5 8 19 23:54 -31 23
L L L L L
Promotion - Primera Nacional (Super final)
Promotion - Primera Nacional (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation