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COLOMBIA › PRIMERA A
26.07.2026 23:10
Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau
Referee: Jonnathan Ortiz, Colombia
Alianza Valledupar
Match Timeline
Fortaleza FC
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
20'
J. Solis · Assist: S. Vivas
Fortaleza FC
🟨
26'
Jesús Figueroa
Alianza Valledupar
🟨
37'
Italo Montaño Cortes
Fortaleza FC
🟨
55'
Cristian Andres Vergara Rivas
Alianza Valledupar
🟨
55'
Yesid Díaz
Fortaleza FC
🔄
60'
J. Figueroa ↔ J. Castillo
Alianza Valledupar
🔄
60'
Y. Londono ↔ J. Viveros
Alianza Valledupar
🔄
60'
S. Vivas ↔ K. A. Balanta Carabali
Fortaleza FC
🔄
69'
D. Quinones ↔ F. Pardo
Alianza Valledupar
🔄
69'
T. Wilke ↔ J. Herrera
Fortaleza FC
🔄
69'
I. Montano ↔ R. D. Rivas Torres
Fortaleza FC
⚽
71'
C. Vergara · Assist: J. Lasso
Alianza Valledupar
🔄
78'
I. Alba ↔ Y. Rosales
Alianza Valledupar
🔄
78'
J. Munoz ↔ L. Palacios
Alianza Valledupar
🔄
82'
S. Navarro ↔ S. Ramirez
Fortaleza FC
🔄
82'
J. Solis ↔ J. Blanco
Fortaleza FC

Alianza Valledupar vs Fortaleza FC Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 58.9%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
58.9%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
78.8%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
86.5%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Alianza Valledupar Win 58.9%
Draw 12.9%
Fortaleza FC Win 28.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Alianza Valledupar0.99
Fortaleza FC1.26
Recent Form (Last 5)
Alianza Valledupar Alianza Valledupar
WWDLW
14 GF / 28 GA
Fortaleza FC Fortaleza FC
WLDWL
22 GF / 27 GA
Key Stats
0.7
Average Goals Scored
1.16
1.4
Average Goals Conceded
1.42
9
BTTS Yes
14
6
Over 2.5
9
2.74
Shots on Goal
3.68

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Alianza Valledupar Alianza Valledupar 20 matches
Fortaleza FC Fortaleza FC 19 matches
Alianza Valledupar Statistic Fortaleza FC
3 Wins 5
9 Draws 7
8 Losses 7
14 Goals For 22
28 Goals Against 27
0.7 Avg Goals Scored 1.16
1.4 Avg Goals Conceded 1.42
9 BTTS Yes 14
13 Over 1.5 16
6 Over 2.5 9
3 Over 3.5 3
4 Clean Sheets 3
9 Failed To Score 3
2.74 Shots On Goal 3.68
10.95 Total Shots 12.11
4.37 Corners 4.37
45.5% Ball Possession 54.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Fortaleza FC. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Alianza Valledupar expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Fortaleza FC in 4-4-1-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Fortaleza FC having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Alianza Valledupar Analysis

Alianza Valledupar sit 17 with 17 points after 19 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 3 wins, 8 draws, and 8 defeats with a 13:27 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked fairly stable. At home, the split record of - wins, - draws, and - losses points to an unclear split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Fortaleza FC Analysis

With 22 points from 19 games and a place of 15, Fortaleza FC still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 5 wins, 7 draws, and 7 defeats with a 22:27 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed - wins, - draws, and - losses, a return that supports an unclear split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 8 head-to-head meetings, Alianza Valledupar won 2 times, Fortaleza FC won 2 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 8:8 from Alianza Valledupar's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (87.1%)
Predicted formations: Alianza Valledupar 4-2-3-1 / Fortaleza FC 4-4-1-1
H2H summary: Alianza Valledupar wins 2, draws 4, Fortaleza FC wins 2

Standings

Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 13 1 5 35:15 20 40
W D W D L
2 19 11 2 6 31:24 7 35
D D D L L
3 19 10 4 5 29:25 4 34
D L W W D
4 19 10 3 6 25:15 10 33
D L W W D
5 19 8 9 2 31:22 9 33
W W D L L
6 19 8 7 4 27:17 10 31
L L D D D
7 19 7 8 4 29:22 7 29
L W W L W
8 19 7 7 5 26:26 0 28
D D D L L
9 19 7 6 6 20:16 4 27
D D W W W
10 19 7 5 7 31:23 8 26
W D D D W
11 19 7 5 7 26:24 2 26
L W L D L
12 19 7 5 7 20:25 -5 26
W D D W L
13 19 5 8 6 26:20 6 23
D D W W W
14 19 4 10 5 17:20 -3 22
W L L L W
15 19 5 7 7 22:27 -5 22
D D D L D
16 19 5 3 11 20:33 -13 18
L W L L L
17 19 3 8 8 13:27 -14 17
D L W L W
18 19 5 2 12 15:32 -17 17
L L D W L
19 19 3 7 9 22:35 -13 16
W W W L L
20 19 1 7 11 15:32 -17 10
D D L L D
Post season qualification