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20.07.2026 00:00
Estadio Alejandro Villanueva
Referee: Micke Palomino, Peru
Alianza Lima
Match Timeline
Sport Huancayo
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
18'
N. Lujan · Assist: P. Magallanes
Sport Huancayo
🟨
28'
Diego Carabaño
Sport Huancayo
⚽
33'
E. Castillo
Alianza Lima
🔄
46'
F. Caballero ↔ R. Huaccha
Sport Huancayo
🟨
57'
Hugo Ángeles
Sport Huancayo
🟨
59'
Eryc Castillo
Alianza Lima
⚽
61'
E. Castillo · Assist: M. Huaman
Alianza Lima
🟨
65'
Luis Advíncula
Alianza Lima
🟨
69'
Paolo Guerrero
Alianza Lima
🔄
70'
Paolo Guerrero ↔ J. Castillo
Alianza Lima
🔄
70'
P. Magallanes ↔ D. Porozo
Sport Huancayo
🔄
70'
Y. Murillo ↔ J. J. Gimenez Delgado
Sport Huancayo
🟨
77'
Nahuel Luján
Sport Huancayo
🔄
80'
F. Gaibor ↔ A. Cantero
Alianza Lima
🔄
80'
N. Lujan ↔ R. Campodonico
Sport Huancayo
🔄
83'
M. Gaona ↔ J. Barreda
Sport Huancayo
🟨
88'
Marco Huamán
Alianza Lima
🔄
90+2'
E. Castillo ↔ J. Archimbaud
Alianza Lima
🔄
90+2'
J. Velez ↔ C. Neira
Alianza Lima

Alianza Lima vs Sport Huancayo Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 88%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
88%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
75.1%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
- ▥
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
67.9%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Alianza Lima Win 88%
Draw 4.8%
Sport Huancayo Win 7.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Alianza Lima1.7
Sport Huancayo0.97
Recent Form (Last 5)
Alianza Lima Alianza Lima
WWDLW
34 GF / 12 GA
Sport Huancayo Sport Huancayo
WLDWL
21 GF / 31 GA
Key Stats
1.62
Average Goals Scored
1.24
0.57
Average Goals Conceded
1.82
8
BTTS Yes
13
7
Over 2.5
13
5.16
Shots on Goal
4.24

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Alianza Lima Alianza Lima 21 matches
Sport Huancayo Sport Huancayo 17 matches
Alianza Lima Statistic Sport Huancayo
13 Wins 4
5 Draws 4
3 Losses 9
34 Goals For 21
12 Goals Against 31
1.62 Avg Goals Scored 1.24
0.57 Avg Goals Conceded 1.82
8 BTTS Yes 13
13 Over 1.5 15
7 Over 2.5 13
2 Over 3.5 5
10 Clean Sheets 2
4 Failed To Score 3
5.16 Shots On Goal 4.24
14.16 Total Shots 12.88
3.68 Corners 4.18
54.5% Ball Possession 50.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Alianza Lima's more proactive style and Sport Huancayo's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Alianza Lima expected to line up in 5-3-2 and Sport Huancayo in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Sport Huancayo having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Sport Huancayo. Alianza Lima arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 40 points compared to Sport Huancayo in 17 on 16, which underlines the gap in season consistency.

Alianza Lima Analysis

Alianza Lima come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 1 with 40 points from 17 matches. Their overall return of 12 wins, 4 draws, and 1 losses with goals at 30:8 reflects poor form . Their attacking weight is carried by E. Castillo (9 goals), R. Garces (5 goals), Paolo Guerrero (4 goals), with creative support from E. Castillo (5 assists), J. Velez (4 assists), A. Cantero (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, their split return of 7 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses fits a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Sport Huancayo Analysis

Sport Huancayo approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 17 with 16 points from 17 matches. The overall return of 4 wins, 4 draws, and 9 defeats with a 21:31 goal balance points toward poor form . Going forward they depend heavily on Yorleys Mena (5 goals), Franco Caballero (4 goals), N. Lujan (3 goals), with creative support from D. Carabano (3 assists), J. J. Canela Torres (3 assists), N. Lujan (2 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 0 wins, 2 draws, and 7 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Alianza Lima won 7 times, Sport Huancayo won 3 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:12 from Alianza Lima's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 1.93 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.2%)
Predicted formations: Alianza Lima 5-3-2 / Sport Huancayo 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Alianza Lima wins 7, draws 4, Sport Huancayo wins 3

Standings

Primera Division: Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 17 12 4 1 30:8 22 40
D W W D W
2 17 10 4 3 25:21 4 34
D L W D L
3 17 10 3 4 34:22 12 33
W D L W W
4 17 8 5 4 24:15 9 29
W D L D W
5 17 8 4 5 29:20 9 28
W D W D W
6 17 8 3 6 21:24 -3 27
W W L D D
7 17 7 5 5 21:18 3 26
W D W W W
8 17 5 6 6 20:18 2 21
L D W L W
9 17 5 6 6 18:20 -2 21
L D L D L
10 17 5 5 7 22:21 1 20
L L W D W
11 17 5 5 7 15:19 -4 20
W D W D L
12 17 5 4 8 28:30 -2 19
L W L D D
13 17 4 6 7 21:26 -5 18
D D L L L
14 17 5 3 9 17:24 -7 18
L D L D L
15 17 4 5 8 23:28 -5 17
D D W W W
16 17 4 4 9 12:18 -6 16
W L W L L
17 17 4 4 9 21:31 -10 16
L D L W L
18 17 4 4 9 22:40 -18 16
L D L L L
Promotion - Liga 1 (Play Offs)