SPAIN LA LIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Mendizorrotza
Referee: J. Manzano
Alaves
Match Timeline
Rayo Vallecano
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
13'
T. Martinez
Alaves
🔄
33'
V. Parada ↔ C. Protesoni
Alaves
🔄
38'
C. Martin ↔ S. Camello
Rayo Vallecano
🔄
46'
A. Garcia ↔ J. de Frutos
Rayo Vallecano
🟨
54'
Sergio Camello
Rayo Vallecano
🔄
61'
O. Valentin ↔ Alemao
Rayo Vallecano
🔄
61'
A. Mumin ↔ P. Ciss
Rayo Vallecano
🟨
64'
Pathé Ismaël Ciss
Rayo Vallecano
🟨
69'
Ángel Pérez
Alaves
73'
S. Camello · Assist: P. Ciss
Rayo Vallecano
🔄
74'
P. Ibanez ↔ D. Suarez
Alaves
🟨
79'
Abderrahman Rebbach
Alaves
🔄
84'
L. Boye ↔ I. Diabate
Alaves
🔄
84'
J. Guridi ↔ A. Guevara
Alaves
🟨
87'
Nahuel Tenaglia
Alaves
🔄
88'
I. Balliu ↔ A. Ratiu
Rayo Vallecano
🟨
90+4'
Pacha
Rayo Vallecano
90'
R. Nteka · Assist: S. Camello
Rayo Vallecano

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 87%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 69.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 40.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
87%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
69.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
40.1%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
81.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Alaves Win 41.7%
Draw 13%
Rayo Vallecano Win 45.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Alaves1.26
Rayo Vallecano1.38
Recent Form (Last 5)
Alaves Alaves
WWDLW
58 GF / 57 GA
Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano
WLDWL
77 GF / 60 GA
Key Stats
1.38
Average Goals Scored
1.4
1.36
Average Goals Conceded
1.09
24
BTTS Yes
25
21
Over 2.5
25
3.9
Shots on Goal
4.87

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Alaves Alaves 42 matches
Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 55 matches
Alaves Statistic Rayo Vallecano
15 Wins 24
10 Draws 15
17 Losses 16
58 Goals For 77
57 Goals Against 60
1.38 Avg Goals Scored 1.4
1.36 Avg Goals Conceded 1.09
24 BTTS Yes 25
30 Over 1.5 40
21 Over 2.5 25
11 Over 3.5 13
9 Clean Sheets 19
10 Failed To Score 14
3.9 Shots On Goal 4.87
11.52 Total Shots 14.44
4.83 Corners 5.95
47.3% Ball Possession 53.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Rayo Vallecano. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Alaves expected to line up in 5-3-2 and Rayo Vallecano in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Rayo Vallecano having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Alaves Analysis

With 43 points from 37 games and a place of 14, Alaves still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 11 wins, 10 draws, and 16 defeats, and the 43:54 goal record continues to suggest good form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on T. Martinez (13 goals), L. Boye (11 goals), C. Vicente (5 goals), with creative support from Abderrahman Rebbach (4 assists), C. Alena (4 assists), T. Martinez (3 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. At home, the split record of 7 wins, 6 draws, and 5 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Rayo Vallecano Analysis

From their first 37 matches, Rayo Vallecano have collected 47 points and now occupy 8 place in the table. The record of 11 wins, 14 draws, and 12 defeats, together with a 39:43 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through J. de Frutos (10 goals), A. Garcia (4 goals), Alemao (4 goals), with creative support from A. Garcia (5 assists), Andrei Rațiu (4 assists), Unai López (4 assists), while at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 4 wins, 4 draws, and 10 losses, a split that suggests a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 11 head-to-head meetings, Alaves won 4 times, Rayo Vallecano won 7 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 10:12 from Alaves's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (87%)
Predicted formations: Alaves 5-3-2 / Rayo Vallecano 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Alaves 2, Rayo Vallecano 5
H2H summary: Alaves wins 4, draws 0, Rayo Vallecano wins 7
Stats
Alaves Alaves
Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano
Shots on Goal
11
Shots on Goal
7
Shots off Goal
0
Shots off Goal
6
Blocked Shots
8
Blocked Shots
2
10 Corner Kicks 5
13 Fouls 14
3 Offsides 3
48% Ball Possession 52%
19 Total Shots 15
11 Shots on Goal 7
0 Shots off Goal 6
8 Blocked Shots 2
11 Shots insidebox 8
8 Shots outsidebox 7
5 Goalkeeper Saves 10
345 Total passes 378
276 Passes accurate 311
1.63 expected_goals 1.34
🟨 3 Yellow Cards 3 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Alaves
Formation
Rayo Vallecano
A. Sivera
A. Sivera
N. Tenaglia
N. Tenaglia
V. Koski
V. Koski
V. Parada
V. Parada
A. Perez
A. Perez
P. Ibanez
P. Ibanez
A. Blanco
A. Blanco
J. Guridi
J. Guridi
A. Rebbach
A. Rebbach
L. Boye
L. Boye
T. Martinez
T. Martinez
D. Cardenas
D. Cardenas
I. Balliu
I. Balliu
A. Mumin
A. Mumin
N. Mendy
N. Mendy
Pacha
Pacha
O. Valentin
O. Valentin
G. Gumbau
G. Gumbau
C. Martin
C. Martin
P. Diaz
P. Diaz
A. Garcia
A. Garcia
R. Nteka
R. Nteka
Alaves 3-5-2
Starting XI
1
A. Sivera
G
14
N. Tenaglia
🟨 87'
D
16
V. Koski
D
24
V. Parada
↓ 33'
D
7
A. Perez
🟨 69'
M
19
P. Ibanez
↓ 74'
M
8
A. Blanco
M
18
J. Guridi
↓ 84'
M
21
A. Rebbach
🟨 79'
M
15
L. Boye
↓ 84'
F
11
T. Martinez
⚽ 13'
F
Substitutes
13
R. Fernandez
G
31
G. Swiderski
G
4
D. Suarez
↑ 74'
M
17
Jonny Otto
D
22
I. Diabate
↑ 84'
F
34
A. Manas
3
Yusi
D
9
M. Diaz
F
10
C. Alena
M
23
C. Protesoni
↑ 33'
M
6
A. Guevara
↑ 84'
M
20
Calebe
M
Rayo Vallecano 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
D. Cardenas
G
20
I. Balliu
↓ 88'
D
16
A. Mumin
↓ 61'
D
32
N. Mendy
D
22
Pacha
🟨 90+4'
D
23
O. Valentin
↓ 61'
M
15
G. Gumbau
M
14
C. Martin
↓ 38'
M
4
P. Diaz
M
18
A. Garcia
↓ 46'
M
11
R. Nteka
⚽ 90'
F
Substitutes
13
A. Batalla
G
30
J. Gil
G
8
O. Trejo
M
24
F. Lejeune
D
9
Alemao
↑ 61'
F
3
P. Chavarria
D
33
J. Vertrouwd
D
19
J. de Frutos
↑ 46'
F
6
P. Ciss
🎯 73' ↑ 61' 🟨 64'
M
10
S. Camello
⚽ 73' 🎯 90' ↑ 38' 🟨 54'
F
21
F. Perez
M
2
A. Ratiu
↑ 88'
D
Last matches: Alaves
17.05.26
La
Alaves
Oviedo
1
0
W
13.05.26
La
Alaves
Barcelona
1
0
W
09.05.26
La
Alaves
Elche
1
1
D
02.05.26
La
Alaves
Athletic Club
2
4
L
25.04.26
La
Alaves
Mallorca
2
1
W
21.04.26
La
Alaves
Real Madrid
1
2
L
11.04.26
La
Alaves
Real Sociedad
3
3
D
05.04.26
La
Alaves
Osasuna
2
2
D
22.03.26
La
Alaves
Celta Vigo
4
3
W
13.03.26
La
Alaves
Villarreal
1
1
D
08.03.26
La
Alaves
Valencia
2
3
L
27.02.26
La
Alaves
Levante
0
2
L
23.02.26
La
Alaves
Girona
2
2
D
14.02.26
La
Alaves
Sevilla
1
1
D
08.02.26
La
Alaves
Getafe
0
2
L
04.02.26
Cop
Alaves
Real Sociedad
2
3
L
30.01.26
La
Alaves
Espanyol
2
1
W
25.01.26
La
Alaves
Real Betis
2
1
W
18.01.26
La
Alaves
Atletico Madrid
0
1
L
14.01.26
Cop
Alaves
Rayo Vallecano
2
0
W
Last matches: Rayo Vallecano
27.05.26
UEF
Rayo Vallecano
Crystal Palace
0
1
L
17.05.26
La
Rayo Vallecano
Villarreal
2
0
W
14.05.26
La
Rayo Vallecano
Valencia
1
1
D
11.05.26
La
Rayo Vallecano
Girona
1
1
D
07.05.26
UEF
Rayo Vallecano
Strasbourg
1
0
W
03.05.26
La
Rayo Vallecano
Getafe
2
0
W
30.04.26
UEF
Rayo Vallecano
Strasbourg
1
0
W
26.04.26
La
Rayo Vallecano
Real Sociedad
3
3
D
23.04.26
La
Rayo Vallecano
Espanyol
1
0
W
16.04.26
UEF
Rayo Vallecano
AEK Athens FC
1
3
L
12.04.26
La
Rayo Vallecano
Mallorca
0
3
L
09.04.26
UEF
Rayo Vallecano
AEK Athens FC
3
0
W
03.04.26
La
Rayo Vallecano
Elche
1
0
W
22.03.26
La
Rayo Vallecano
Barcelona
0
1
L
19.03.26
UEF
Rayo Vallecano
Samsunspor
0
1
L
16.03.26
La
Rayo Vallecano
Levante
1
1
D
12.03.26
UEF
Rayo Vallecano
Samsunspor
3
1
W
08.03.26
La
Rayo Vallecano
Sevilla
1
1
D
04.03.26
La
Rayo Vallecano
Oviedo
3
0
W
28.02.26
La
Rayo Vallecano
Athletic Club
1
1
D
H2H: Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano
23.05.26
H2H
Alaves
Rayo Vallecano
1
2
L
14.01.26
H2H
Alaves
Rayo Vallecano
2
0
W
26.10.25
H2H
Rayo Vallecano
Alaves
1
0
L
29.03.25
H2H
Alaves
Rayo Vallecano
0
2
L
26.10.24
H2H
Rayo Vallecano
Alaves
1
0
L
10.03.24
H2H
Alaves
Rayo Vallecano
1
0
W
15.09.23
H2H
Rayo Vallecano
Alaves
2
0
L
16.04.22
H2H
Alaves
Rayo Vallecano
1
0
W
18.12.21
H2H
Rayo Vallecano
Alaves
2
0
L
28.01.19
H2H
Alaves
Rayo Vallecano
0
1
L
22.09.18
H2H
Rayo Vallecano
Alaves
1
5
W
Last matches: Alaves
13.05.26
La
Alaves
Barcelona
1
0
W
02.05.26
La
Alaves
Athletic Club
2
4
L
25.04.26
La
Alaves
Mallorca
2
1
W
05.04.26
La
Alaves
Osasuna
2
2
D
13.03.26
La
Alaves
Villarreal
1
1
D
23.02.26
La
Alaves
Girona
2
2
D
08.02.26
La
Alaves
Getafe
0
2
L
04.02.26
Cop
Alaves
Real Sociedad
2
3
L
25.01.26
La
Alaves
Real Betis
2
1
W
14.01.26
Cop
Alaves
Rayo Vallecano
2
0
W
04.01.26
La
Alaves
Oviedo
1
1
D
17.12.25
Cop
Alaves
Sevilla
1
0
W
14.12.25
La
Alaves
Real Madrid
1
2
L
06.12.25
La
Alaves
Real Sociedad
1
0
W
22.11.25
La
Alaves
Celta Vigo
0
1
L
02.11.25
La
Alaves
Espanyol
2
1
W
20.10.25
La
Alaves
Valencia
0
0
D
05.10.25
La
Alaves
Elche
3
1
W
20.09.25
La
Alaves
Sevilla
1
2
L
30.08.25
La
Alaves
Atletico Madrid
1
1
D
H2H at home: Alaves
23.05.26
H2H
Alaves
Rayo Vallecano
1
2
L
14.01.26
H2H
Alaves
Rayo Vallecano
2
0
W
29.03.25
H2H
Alaves
Rayo Vallecano
0
2
L
10.03.24
H2H
Alaves
Rayo Vallecano
1
0
W
16.04.22
H2H
Alaves
Rayo Vallecano
1
0
W
28.01.19
H2H
Alaves
Rayo Vallecano
0
1
L
Last matches: Rayo Vallecano
27.05.26
UEF
Rayo Vallecano
Crystal Palace
0
1
L
14.05.26
La
Rayo Vallecano
Valencia
1
1
D
07.05.26
UEF
Rayo Vallecano
Strasbourg
1
0
W
03.05.26
La
Rayo Vallecano
Getafe
2
0
W
16.04.26
UEF
Rayo Vallecano
AEK Athens FC
1
3
L
12.04.26
La
Rayo Vallecano
Mallorca
0
3
L
22.03.26
La
Rayo Vallecano
Barcelona
0
1
L
12.03.26
UEF
Rayo Vallecano
Samsunspor
3
1
W
08.03.26
La
Rayo Vallecano
Sevilla
1
1
D
21.02.26
La
Rayo Vallecano
Real Betis
1
1
D
01.02.26
La
Rayo Vallecano
Real Madrid
1
2
L
18.01.26
La
Rayo Vallecano
Celta Vigo
0
3
L
14.01.26
Cop
Rayo Vallecano
Alaves
0
2
L
06.01.26
Cop
Rayo Vallecano
Granada CF
3
1
W
21.12.25
La
Rayo Vallecano
Elche
0
4
L
11.12.25
UEF
Rayo Vallecano
Jagiellonia
2
1
W
07.12.25
La
Rayo Vallecano
Espanyol
0
1
L
04.12.25
Cop
Rayo Vallecano
Real Ávila
2
1
W
27.11.25
UEF
Rayo Vallecano
Slovan Bratislava
1
2
L
23.11.25
La
Rayo Vallecano
Oviedo
0
0
D
H2H away: Rayo Vallecano
23.05.26
H2H
Alaves
Rayo Vallecano
1
2
W
14.01.26
H2H
Alaves
Rayo Vallecano
2
0
L
29.03.25
H2H
Alaves
Rayo Vallecano
0
2
W
10.03.24
H2H
Alaves
Rayo Vallecano
1
0
L
16.04.22
H2H
Alaves
Rayo Vallecano
1
0
L
28.01.19
H2H
Alaves
Rayo Vallecano
0
1
W

Standings

Primera División
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 31 1 6 95:36 59 94
L W L W W
2 38 27 5 6 77:35 42 86
W W W L W
3 38 22 6 10 72:46 26 72
W L L D W
4 38 21 6 11 62:44 18 69
L W W L W
5 38 15 15 8 59:48 11 60
W L W D W
6 38 14 12 12 53:48 5 54
W D L W W
7 38 15 6 17 32:38 -6 51
W L W D L
8 38 12 14 12 41:44 -3 50
W W D D W
9 38 13 10 15 46:55 -9 49
W W D W L
10 38 11 13 14 59:61 -2 46
D L D D L
11 38 12 10 16 43:55 -12 46
D W W L L
12 38 13 6 19 43:58 -15 45
L D L L W
13 38 12 7 19 46:60 -14 43
L L W W W
14 38 11 10 17 44:56 -12 43
L W W D L
15 38 10 13 15 49:57 -8 43
D W L D L
16 38 11 9 18 47:61 -14 42
L W W W L
17 38 11 9 18 44:50 -6 42
L L L L L
18 38 11 9 18 47:57 -10 42
W L L D W
19 38 9 14 15 39:55 -16 41
D L D D L
20 38 6 11 21 26:60 -34 29
L L L D L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - LaLiga2

Missing Players

Alaves 2 missing
-
F. Garces
Missing Fixture Suspended
OUT
-
J. Pacheco
Missing Fixture Ankle Injury
OUT
Rayo Vallecano 5 missing
-
I. Akhomach
Missing Fixture Muscle Injury
OUT
-
D. Mendez
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
Luiz Felipe
Missing Fixture Hamstring Injury
OUT
-
I. Palazon
Missing Fixture Red Card
OUT
-
U. Lopez
Missing Fixture Yellow Cards
OUT