Predictions & Statistics
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | No Draw |
87%
|
- | |
| BTTS | BTTS Yes |
69.4%
|
- | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 |
40.1%
|
- | |
| Corners O/U | Over 7.5 Corners |
81.7%
|
- | |
| HT / FT | Home / Home |
-
|
- | |
| Correct Score | 2-1 |
-
|
- |
Alaves
Rayo Vallecano
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Alaves
42 matches
Rayo Vallecano
55 matches
| Alaves | Statistic | Rayo Vallecano |
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Wins | 24 |
| 10 | Draws | 15 |
| 17 | Losses | 16 |
| 58 | Goals For | 77 |
| 57 | Goals Against | 60 |
| 1.38 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.4 |
| 1.36 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.09 |
| 24 | BTTS Yes | 25 |
| 30 | Over 1.5 | 40 |
| 21 | Over 2.5 | 25 |
| 11 | Over 3.5 | 13 |
| 9 | Clean Sheets | 19 |
| 10 | Failed To Score | 14 |
| 3.9 | Shots On Goal | 4.87 |
| 11.52 | Total Shots | 14.44 |
| 4.83 | Corners | 5.95 |
| 47.3% | Ball Possession | 53.5% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Rayo Vallecano. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Alaves expected to line up in 5-3-2 and Rayo Vallecano in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Rayo Vallecano having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.
With 43 points from 37 games and a place of 14, Alaves still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 11 wins, 10 draws, and 16 defeats, and the 43:54 goal record continues to suggest good form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on T. Martinez (13 goals), L. Boye (11 goals), C. Vicente (5 goals), with creative support from Abderrahman Rebbach (4 assists), C. Alena (4 assists), T. Martinez (3 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. At home, the split record of 7 wins, 6 draws, and 5 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.
From their first 37 matches, Rayo Vallecano have collected 47 points and now occupy 8 place in the table. The record of 11 wins, 14 draws, and 12 defeats, together with a 39:43 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through J. de Frutos (10 goals), A. Garcia (4 goals), Alemao (4 goals), with creative support from A. Garcia (5 assists), Andrei Rațiu (4 assists), Unai López (4 assists), while at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 4 wins, 4 draws, and 10 losses, a split that suggests a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.
Across those 11 head-to-head meetings, Alaves won 4 times, Rayo Vallecano won 7 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 10:12 from Alaves's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.
Alaves
11
7
0
6
8
2
Lineups
Alaves
Oviedo
Alaves
Barcelona
Alaves
Elche
Alaves
Athletic Club
Alaves
Mallorca
Alaves
Real Madrid
Alaves
Real Sociedad
Alaves
Osasuna
Alaves
Celta Vigo
Alaves
Villarreal
Alaves
Valencia
Alaves
Levante
Alaves
Girona
Alaves
Sevilla
Alaves
Getafe
Alaves
Real Sociedad
Alaves
Espanyol
Alaves
Real Betis
Alaves
Atletico Madrid
Alaves
Rayo Vallecano
Rayo Vallecano
Crystal Palace
Rayo Vallecano
Villarreal
Rayo Vallecano
Valencia
Rayo Vallecano
Girona
Rayo Vallecano
Strasbourg
Rayo Vallecano
Getafe
Rayo Vallecano
Strasbourg
Rayo Vallecano
Real Sociedad
Rayo Vallecano
Espanyol
Rayo Vallecano
AEK Athens FC
Rayo Vallecano
Mallorca
Rayo Vallecano
AEK Athens FC
Rayo Vallecano
Elche
Rayo Vallecano
Barcelona
Rayo Vallecano
Samsunspor
Rayo Vallecano
Levante
Rayo Vallecano
Samsunspor
Rayo Vallecano
Sevilla
Rayo Vallecano
Oviedo
Rayo Vallecano
Athletic Club
Alaves
Barcelona
Alaves
Athletic Club
Alaves
Mallorca
Alaves
Osasuna
Alaves
Villarreal
Alaves
Girona
Alaves
Getafe
Alaves
Real Sociedad
Alaves
Real Betis
Alaves
Rayo Vallecano
Alaves
Oviedo
Alaves
Sevilla
Alaves
Real Madrid
Alaves
Real Sociedad
Alaves
Celta Vigo
Alaves
Espanyol
Alaves
Valencia
Alaves
Elche
Alaves
Sevilla
Alaves
Atletico Madrid
Rayo Vallecano
Crystal Palace
Rayo Vallecano
Valencia
Rayo Vallecano
Strasbourg
Rayo Vallecano
Getafe
Rayo Vallecano
AEK Athens FC
Rayo Vallecano
Mallorca
Rayo Vallecano
Barcelona
Rayo Vallecano
Samsunspor
Rayo Vallecano
Sevilla
Rayo Vallecano
Real Betis
Rayo Vallecano
Real Madrid
Rayo Vallecano
Celta Vigo
Rayo Vallecano
Alaves
Rayo Vallecano
Granada CF
Rayo Vallecano
Elche
Rayo Vallecano
Jagiellonia
Rayo Vallecano
Espanyol
Rayo Vallecano
Real Ávila
Rayo Vallecano
Slovan Bratislava
Rayo Vallecano
Oviedo
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 38 | 31 | 1 | 6 | 95:36 | 59 | 94 |
L
W
L
W
W
|
|
| 2 | 38 | 27 | 5 | 6 | 77:35 | 42 | 86 |
W
W
W
L
W
|
|
| 3 | 38 | 22 | 6 | 10 | 72:46 | 26 | 72 |
W
L
L
D
W
|
|
| 4 | 38 | 21 | 6 | 11 | 62:44 | 18 | 69 |
L
W
W
L
W
|
|
| 5 | 38 | 15 | 15 | 8 | 59:48 | 11 | 60 |
W
L
W
D
W
|
|
| 6 | 38 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 53:48 | 5 | 54 |
W
D
L
W
W
|
|
| 7 | 38 | 15 | 6 | 17 | 32:38 | -6 | 51 |
W
L
W
D
L
|
|
| 8 |
Rayo Vallecano
Away
|
38 | 12 | 14 | 12 | 41:44 | -3 | 50 |
W
W
D
D
W
|
| 9 | 38 | 13 | 10 | 15 | 46:55 | -9 | 49 |
W
W
D
W
L
|
|
| 10 | 38 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 59:61 | -2 | 46 |
D
L
D
D
L
|
|
| 11 | 38 | 12 | 10 | 16 | 43:55 | -12 | 46 |
D
W
W
L
L
|
|
| 12 | 38 | 13 | 6 | 19 | 43:58 | -15 | 45 |
L
D
L
L
W
|
|
| 13 | 38 | 12 | 7 | 19 | 46:60 | -14 | 43 |
L
L
W
W
W
|
|
| 14 |
Alaves
Home
|
38 | 11 | 10 | 17 | 44:56 | -12 | 43 |
L
W
W
D
L
|
| 15 | 38 | 10 | 13 | 15 | 49:57 | -8 | 43 |
D
W
L
D
L
|
|
| 16 | 38 | 11 | 9 | 18 | 47:61 | -14 | 42 |
L
W
W
W
L
|
|
| 17 | 38 | 11 | 9 | 18 | 44:50 | -6 | 42 |
L
L
L
L
L
|
|
| 18 | 38 | 11 | 9 | 18 | 47:57 | -10 | 42 |
W
L
L
D
W
|
|
| 19 | 38 | 9 | 14 | 15 | 39:55 | -16 | 41 |
D
L
D
D
L
|
|
| 20 | 38 | 6 | 11 | 21 | 26:60 | -34 | 29 |
L
L
L
D
L
|