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SAUDI-ARABIA › PRO LEAGUE
09.10.2026 18:00
Al-Awwal Park
Referee: Mohammed Sami Al-Ismail
Al-Nassr
Match Timeline
Al Diriyah
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
23'
Cristiano Ronaldo
Al-Nassr
🟨
28'
Chancel Mbemba
Al Diriyah
⚽
35'
Samu Costa · Assist: Joao Felix
Al-Nassr
VAR
40'
Darwin Nuñez
Al Diriyah
🟨
45+2'
Abdulaziz Al Faraj
Al Diriyah
🔄
68'
Hussain Al-Sabiyani ↔ Lovro Chelfi
Al Diriyah
🔄
68'
Abdulaziz Al Faraj ↔ Mohammed Dheban
Al Diriyah
⚽
77'
Kingsley Coman · Assist: Sadio Mané
Al-Nassr
🔄
78'
Kingsley Coman ↔ Ayman Yahya
Al-Nassr
🔄
78'
Abdullah Al-Khaibari ↔ Sami Al-Najei
Al-Nassr
🔄
78'
Joao Felix ↔ Abdullah Al-Hamdan
Al-Nassr
🔄
83'
Óscar Rodríguez ↔ Taher Wadi
Al Diriyah
🔄
83'
Adil Boulbina ↔ Hussain Al Qahtani
Al Diriyah
🔄
84'
Idrissa Gueye ↔ Meshari Fahad Al Nemer
Al Diriyah
🔄
84'
Awad Aman ↔ Saad Fahad Al Nasser
Al-Nassr

Al-Nassr vs Al Diriyah Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 87.6%
Odds 1.17
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75.1%
Odds 1.62
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 70.3%
Odds 1.38
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
87.6%
1.17 ▥
BTTS Yes
75.1%
1.62 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
70.3%
1.38 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.23 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.00 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
8.50 ▥
Probability Distribution
Al-Nassr Win 45.6%
Draw 12.4%
Al Diriyah Win 42%
Expected Goals (xG)
Al-Nassr1.41
Al Diriyah1.41
Recent Form (Last 5)
Al-Nassr Al-Nassr
WWDLW
21 GF / 15 GA
Al Diriyah Al Diriyah
WLDWL
13 GF / 6 GA
Key Stats
1.91
Average Goals Scored
1.44
1.36
Average Goals Conceded
0.67
7
BTTS Yes
3
8
Over 2.5
3
6.29
Shots on Goal
2.71

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Al-Nassr Al-Nassr 11 matches
Al Diriyah Al Diriyah 9 matches
Al-Nassr Statistic Al Diriyah
6 Wins 5
1 Draws 2
4 Losses 2
21 Goals For 13
15 Goals Against 6
1.91 Avg Goals Scored 1.44
1.36 Avg Goals Conceded 0.67
7 BTTS Yes 3
11 Over 1.5 6
8 Over 2.5 3
3 Over 3.5 1
3 Clean Sheets 4
1 Failed To Score 3
6.29 Shots On Goal 2.71
16.43 Total Shots 10.14
8.29 Corners 4.14
56.7% Ball Possession 40.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Al-Nassr arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 3 with 16 points compared to Al Diriyah in 8 on 11, which underlines the gap in season consistency. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Al Diriyah having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Al Diriyah. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Al-Nassr Analysis

Al-Nassr approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 3 on 16 points after 7 outings. The return of 5 wins, 1 draws, and 1 defeats, together with goals at 16:7, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through Ângelo (2 goals), S. Mané (2 goals), Abdulelah Al Amri (2 goals), with creative support from Ângelo (2 assists), João Félix (2 assists), S. Mané (1 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. At home, their record of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

Al Diriyah Analysis

Al Diriyah are currently 8 in the standings with 11 points from 7 matches. Their overall return of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses with goals at 7:5 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by D. Núñez (3 goals), A. Boulbina (2 goals), Abdulelah Al Malki (1 goals), with creative support from Óscar Rodríguez (3 assists), Abdulaziz Al Faraj (1 assists), C. Diandy (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, they have returned 3 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 1 head-to-head meetings, Al-Nassr won 1 times, Al Diriyah won 0 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 4:1 from Al-Nassr's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 5 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (87.6%)
Predicted formations: Al-Nassr 4-4-2 / Al Diriyah 5-3-2
H2H summary: Al-Nassr wins 1, draws 0, Al Diriyah wins 0

Standings

Saudi Professional League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 8 6 1 1 21:8 13 19
W D W W W
2 8 6 1 1 19:7 12 19
W D W L W
3 7 6 0 1 23:5 18 18
W L W W W
4 7 5 2 0 12:6 6 17
W W W D W
5 8 5 0 3 20:10 10 15
W W L W L
6 7 5 0 2 13:6 7 15
W W W L L
7 8 3 3 2 12:15 -3 12
L L W D W
8 7 3 2 2 11:11 0 11
D D W L L
9 8 3 2 3 7:8 -1 11
L D W L W
10 7 2 2 3 7:9 -2 8
L W D D L
11 7 2 2 3 8:16 -8 8
W D L W D
12 7 1 3 3 7:11 -4 6
D L D W D
13 7 0 5 2 3:10 -7 5
D D L L D
14 7 0 4 3 6:11 -5 4
D L L D D
15 7 0 3 4 5:13 -8 3
L D D L D
16 7 0 3 4 3:12 -9 3
L L D L D
17 8 0 3 5 4:15 -11 3
L L L D D
18 7 0 2 5 5:13 -8 2
D L L L D
Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - AFC Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2
Promotion - Gulf Club Champions League
Relegation - Division 1