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06.05.2026 18:00
King Abdullah Sports City
Referee: A. Al Qahtani
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Match Timeline
Al-Fateh
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
25'
Abdulaziz Al-Swealem
Al-Fateh
⚽
27'
I. Toney
Al-Ahli Jeddah
🔄
32'
F. Kessie ↔ Matheus Goncalves
Al-Ahli Jeddah
⚽
50'
S. Bendebka · Assist: M. Vargas
Al-Fateh
🔄
56'
Wesley Delgado ↔ F. Al Zubaidi
Al-Fateh
🔄
56'
M. Al Sahihi ↔ Z. Youssouf
Al-Fateh
⚽
76'
I. Toney
Al-Ahli Jeddah
🟨
78'
Matías Vargas
Al-Fateh
🔄
80'
N. Masoud ↔ M. Al Aboud
Al-Fateh
🔄
84'
R. Mahrez ↔ S. Abu Al Shamat
Al-Ahli Jeddah
🔄
86'
S. Baattia ↔ Bin Mahmoud
Al-Fateh
🔄
86'
S. Bendebka ↔ A. Al Anazi
Al-Fateh
🔄
89'
V. Atangana ↔ Z. Al Johani
Al-Ahli Jeddah
⚽
90'
I. Toney · Assist: S. Abu Al Shamat
Al-Ahli Jeddah

Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fateh Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 82.4%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 39.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 52.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
82.4%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
39.1%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
52.6%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-0
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win 82.4%
Draw 0%
Al-Fateh Win 17.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Al-Ahli Jeddah1.86
Al-Fateh1.05
Recent Form (Last 5)
Al-Ahli Jeddah Al-Ahli Jeddah
WWDLW
59 GF / 22 GA
Al-Fateh Al-Fateh
WLDWL
38 GF / 51 GA
Key Stats
1.97
Average Goals Scored
1.27
0.73
Average Goals Conceded
1.7
13
BTTS Yes
20
14
Over 2.5
14
5.03
Shots on Goal
4.73

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Al-Ahli Jeddah Al-Ahli Jeddah 30 matches
Al-Fateh Al-Fateh 30 matches
Al-Ahli Jeddah Statistic Al-Fateh
21 Wins 8
6 Draws 9
3 Losses 13
59 Goals For 38
22 Goals Against 51
1.97 Avg Goals Scored 1.27
0.73 Avg Goals Conceded 1.7
13 BTTS Yes 20
21 Over 1.5 23
14 Over 2.5 14
9 Over 3.5 9
16 Clean Sheets 5
3 Failed To Score 6
5.03 Shots On Goal 4.73
12.47 Total Shots 12.53
5.87 Corners 5.33
48.2% Ball Possession 45.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Al-Ahli Jeddah's more proactive style and Al-Fateh's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Al-Ahli Jeddah expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Al-Fateh in 3-5-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Al-Fateh having the stronger overall control. Al-Ahli Jeddah arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 3 with 69 points compared to Al-Fateh in 12 on 33, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Al-Fateh. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Al-Ahli Jeddah Analysis

Al-Ahli Jeddah come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 3 with 69 points from 30 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 21 wins, 6 draws, and 3 losses, while the 59:22 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on I. Toney (27 goals), F. Kessie (5 goals), Valentin Atangana Edoa (5 goals), with creative support from R. Mahrez (7 assists), Galeno (7 assists), I. Toney (6 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 12 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses, a split that suggests a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Al-Fateh Analysis

Al-Fateh are currently 12 in the standings with 33 points from 30 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 8 wins, 9 draws, and 13 losses, while the 38:51 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on M. Batna (9 goals), S. Bendebka (8 goals), Matías Vargas (7 goals), with creative support from M. Batna (8 assists), Matías Vargas (3 assists), F. Al Zubaidi (3 assists), and defensively they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, their split return of 2 wins, 5 draws, and 7 losses fits a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Al-Ahli Jeddah 4-3-3 / Al-Fateh 3-5-2

Standings

Saudi League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 28 2 4 91:28 63 86
W D W L W
2 34 25 9 0 85:27 58 84
W W D W W
3 34 25 6 3 71:25 46 81
W W W W W
4 34 23 8 3 83:34 49 77
W W W W W
5 34 16 7 11 55:48 7 55
L L W W D
6 34 15 8 11 59:46 13 53
L D L W L
7 34 14 8 12 51:55 -4 50
D L W D W
8 34 12 9 13 43:48 -5 45
D L W D D
9 34 11 9 14 38:57 -19 42
W L D L D
10 34 10 8 16 41:54 -13 38
L L L W D
11 34 9 10 15 41:55 -14 37
D W L L D
12 34 10 7 17 54:62 -8 37
L L L L W
13 34 8 11 15 44:57 -13 35
L W L L L
14 34 9 6 19 39:61 -22 33
D L D D D
15 34 7 9 18 35:63 -28 30
W D W L L
16 34 6 11 17 32:55 -23 29
L W L L L
17 34 5 5 24 27:70 -43 20
L W D L L
18 34 3 7 24 32:76 -44 16
W L D D L
Champions League Elite
Champions League 2
Relegation