BRAZIL SERIE D
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Municipal Zinho de Oliveira
Águia de Marabá
Match Timeline
Parnahyba
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
44'
Felipe Para
Águia de Marabá
49'
Felipe Para
Águia de Marabá

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 68.4%
Odds 1.54
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds 2.10
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds 2.07
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
68.4%
1.54
BTTS Yes
78.8%
2.10
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
2.07
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.20
Correct Score 2-1
-
8.50
Probability Distribution
Águia de Marabá Win 68.4%
Draw 4.9%
Parnahyba Win 26.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Águia de Marabá1.65
Parnahyba1.18
Recent Form (Last 5)
Águia de Marabá Águia de Marabá
WWDLW
21 GF / 13 GA
Parnahyba Parnahyba
WLDWL
13 GF / 14 GA
Key Stats
1.91
Average Goals Scored
1.18
1.18
Average Goals Conceded
1.27
8
BTTS Yes
6
7
Over 2.5
5
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Águia de Marabá Águia de Marabá 11 matches
Parnahyba Parnahyba 11 matches
Águia de Marabá Statistic Parnahyba
5 Wins 5
3 Draws 2
3 Losses 4
21 Goals For 13
13 Goals Against 14
1.91 Avg Goals Scored 1.18
1.18 Avg Goals Conceded 1.27
8 BTTS Yes 6
11 Over 1.5 7
7 Over 2.5 5
3 Over 3.5 3
2 Clean Sheets 2
1 Failed To Score 3
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This knockout meeting sets up as a clash between Águia de Marabá's more proactive style and Parnahyba's more cautious structure, where game management could be just as important as attacking output. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Because this is a knockout setting, momentum shifts, risk management, and late-game discipline could all carry more weight than in a standard league fixture. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Parnahyba. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Parnahyba having the stronger overall control. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Águia de Marabá Analysis

Ahead of this knockout test, Águia de Marabá arrive from a league campaign that has them 2 with 18 points after 10 matches. The return of 5 wins, 3 draws, and 2 defeats, together with a 20:11 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Their attacking influence is driven by A. Silva (7 goals), Felipe Para (4 goals), Dede (2 goals), and at the back they have looked very solid. At home, the return of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

Parnahyba Analysis

Ahead of this knockout test, Parnahyba arrive from a league campaign that has them 3 with 14 points after 10 matches. Their record of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 4 defeats with goals at 11:13 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking weight falls on Cremosinho (3 goals), Junior Barbosa (3 goals), Jeffinho (2 goals), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the return of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader football identity still points toward a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 1 head-to-head meetings, Águia de Marabá won 0 times, Parnahyba won 1 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 1:2 from Águia de Marabá's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.1%)
H2H summary: Águia de Marabá wins 0, draws 0, Parnahyba wins 1
Last matches: Águia de Marabá
21.06.26
Ser
Águia de Marabá
Parnahyba
1
2
L
06.06.26
Ser
Águia de Marabá
Trem
0
2
L
30.05.26
Ser
Águia de Marabá
Tocantinópolis
3
1
W
23.05.26
Ser
Águia de Marabá
Imperatriz
3
0
W
17.05.26
Ser
Águia de Marabá
Tuna Luso
1
2
L
10.05.26
Ser
Águia de Marabá
Oratório
5
1
W
03.05.26
Ser
Águia de Marabá
Oratório
2
1
W
25.04.26
Ser
Águia de Marabá
Tuna Luso
2
0
W
19.04.26
Ser
Águia de Marabá
Imperatriz
1
1
D
11.04.26
Ser
Águia de Marabá
Tocantinópolis
2
2
D
04.04.26
Ser
Águia de Marabá
Trem
1
1
D
27.07.25
Ser
Águia de Marabá
GAS
1
1
D
19.07.25
Ser
Águia de Marabá
Independência
4
1
W
13.07.25
Ser
Águia de Marabá
Manaus FC
3
3
D
05.07.25
Ser
Águia de Marabá
Manauara
0
1
L
29.06.25
Ser
Águia de Marabá
Tuna Luso
0
2
L
14.06.25
Ser
Águia de Marabá
Trem
1
2
L
07.06.25
Ser
Águia de Marabá
Humaitá
6
0
W
01.06.25
Ser
Águia de Marabá
Humaitá
3
1
W
24.05.25
Ser
Águia de Marabá
Trem
0
2
L
Last matches: Parnahyba
21.06.26
Ser
Parnahyba
Águia de Marabá
2
1
W
07.06.26
Ser
Parnahyba
Moto Club
1
0
W
30.05.26
Ser
Parnahyba
Iguatu
2
2
D
24.05.26
Ser
Parnahyba
Maracanã
0
1
L
17.05.26
Ser
Parnahyba
Sampaio Correa
1
4
L
09.05.26
Ser
Parnahyba
IAPE
2
1
W
03.05.26
Ser
Parnahyba
IAPE
3
1
W
26.04.26
Ser
Parnahyba
Sampaio Correa
1
0
W
18.04.26
Ser
Parnahyba
Maracanã
0
1
L
12.04.26
Ser
Parnahyba
Iguatu
0
2
L
05.04.26
Ser
Parnahyba
Moto Club
1
1
D
26.07.25
Ser
Parnahyba
Imperatriz
2
3
L
20.07.25
Ser
Parnahyba
Sampaio Correa
2
2
D
12.07.25
Ser
Parnahyba
Altos
2
4
L
06.07.25
Ser
Parnahyba
Iguatu
2
0
W
29.06.25
Ser
Parnahyba
Maracanã
1
2
L
15.06.25
Ser
Parnahyba
Maranhão
2
2
D
07.06.25
Ser
Parnahyba
Tocantinópolis
0
0
D
01.06.25
Ser
Parnahyba
Tocantinópolis
1
0
W
24.05.25
Ser
Parnahyba
Maranhão
1
1
D
H2H: Águia de Marabá vs Parnahyba
21.06.26
H2H
Parnahyba
Águia de Marabá
2
1
L
Last matches: Águia de Marabá
30.05.26
Ser
Águia de Marabá
Tocantinópolis
3
1
W
10.05.26
Ser
Águia de Marabá
Oratório
5
1
W
25.04.26
Ser
Águia de Marabá
Tuna Luso
2
0
W
19.04.26
Ser
Águia de Marabá
Imperatriz
1
1
D
04.04.26
Ser
Águia de Marabá
Trem
1
1
D
19.07.25
Ser
Águia de Marabá
Independência
4
1
W
05.07.25
Ser
Águia de Marabá
Manauara
0
1
L
07.06.25
Ser
Águia de Marabá
Humaitá
6
0
W
24.05.25
Ser
Águia de Marabá
Trem
0
2
L
17.05.25
Ser
Águia de Marabá
Tuna Luso
0
0
D
03.05.25
Ser
Águia de Marabá
Manaus FC
1
1
D
20.04.25
Ser
Águia de Marabá
GAS
1
0
W
Last matches: Parnahyba
30.05.26
Ser
Parnahyba
Iguatu
2
2
D
17.05.26
Ser
Parnahyba
Sampaio Correa
1
4
L
09.05.26
Ser
Parnahyba
IAPE
2
1
W
18.04.26
Ser
Parnahyba
Maracanã
0
1
L
05.04.26
Ser
Parnahyba
Moto Club
1
1
D
26.07.25
Ser
Parnahyba
Imperatriz
2
3
L
12.07.25
Ser
Parnahyba
Altos
2
4
L
29.06.25
Ser
Parnahyba
Maracanã
1
2
L
07.06.25
Ser
Parnahyba
Tocantinópolis
0
0
D
24.05.25
Ser
Parnahyba
Maranhão
1
1
D
10.05.25
Ser
Parnahyba
Iguatu
0
3
L
26.04.25
Ser
Parnahyba
Sampaio Correa
0
1
L
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 5.75
Draw 3.55
Home 1.54
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.33
Over 1.75 1.42
Over 2.0 1.56
Over 2.25 1.83
Over 2.5 2.07
Over 2.75 2.36
Over 3.0 2.90
Over 3.25 2.92
Under 1.5 2.99
Under 1.75 2.64
Under 2.0 2.31
Under 2.25 1.93
Under 2.5 1.69
Under 2.75 1.52
Under 3.0 1.35
Under 3.25 1.35
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 6.25
Draw 3.40
Home 1.53
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 6.00
Draw 2.20
Home 2.05
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 5.50
Draw 2.60
Home 1.80
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.06
Over 1.5 1.33
Over 2.5 2.05
Over 3.5 3.50
Over 4.5 6.50
Over 5.5 10.50
Over 6.5 17.00
Over 7.5 21.00
Under 0.5 8.00
Under 1.5 3.25
Under 2.5 1.75
Under 3.5 1.28
Under 4.5 1.10
Under 5.5 1.02
Under 6.5 1.00
Under 7.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 6.04
Draw 3.72
Home 1.50
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 6.23
Draw 2.10
Home 2.11
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 5.75
Draw 2.47
Home 1.88
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.04
Over 1.0 1.05
Over 1.25 1.18
Over 1.5 1.31
Over 1.75 1.39
Over 2.0 1.52
Over 2.25 1.79
Over 2.5 2.02
Over 2.75 2.30
Over 3.0 2.83
Over 3.25 3.14
Over 3.5 3.50
Over 3.75 3.94
Over 4.0 6.05
Over 4.5 7.50
Over 5.5 17.00
Over 6.5 17.00
Over 7.5 21.00
Under 0.5 7.85
Under 1.0 6.70
Under 1.25 3.90
Under 1.5 2.92
Under 1.75 2.59
Under 2.0 2.24
Under 2.25 1.89
Under 2.5 1.69
Under 2.75 1.49
Under 3.0 1.33
Under 3.25 1.27
Under 3.5 1.22
Under 3.75 1.17
Under 4.0 1.06
Under 4.5 1.07
Under 5.5 1.02
Under 6.5 1.00
Under 7.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 5.25
Draw 3.65
Home 1.55
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 5.30
Draw 2.23
Home 2.10
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 4.70
Draw 2.55
Home 1.98
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.27
Over 2.5 1.89
Over 3.5 3.30
Under 1.5 3.25
Under 2.5 1.75
Under 3.5 1.26

Standings

Group 5
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 2 2 19:13 6 20
W L W W L
2 10 5 3 2 20:11 9 18
L W W L W
3 10 4 3 3 15:10 5 15
W W L L W
4 10 3 4 3 14:17 -3 13
L W D W L
5 10 3 3 4 18:18 0 12
W L L W W
6 10 1 1 8 12:29 -17 4
L L D L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)