DENMARK › SUPERLIGA
12.10.2026 17:00
New Vejlby Stadium

Aarhus vs Sonderjyske Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 60.2%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
60.2%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
82.5%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Aarhus Win 60.2%
Draw 21.9%
Sonderjyske Win 17.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Aarhus2
Sonderjyske1.66
Recent Form (Last 5)
Aarhus Aarhus
WWDLW
42 GF / 41 GA
Sonderjyske Sonderjyske
WLDWL
26 GF / 38 GA
Key Stats
1.75
Average Goals Scored
1.63
1.71
Average Goals Conceded
2.38
17
BTTS Yes
12
19
Over 2.5
11
4
Shots on Goal
3.89

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Aarhus Aarhus 24 matches
Sonderjyske Sonderjyske 16 matches
Aarhus Statistic Sonderjyske
9 Wins 3
6 Draws 4
9 Losses 9
42 Goals For 26
41 Goals Against 38
1.75 Avg Goals Scored 1.63
1.71 Avg Goals Conceded 2.38
17 BTTS Yes 12
24 Over 1.5 13
19 Over 2.5 11
12 Over 3.5 9
4 Clean Sheets 2
3 Failed To Score 3
4 Shots On Goal 3.89
13.33 Total Shots 11.56
5.67 Corners 4.44
50.9% Ball Possession 39.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Aarhus expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Sonderjyske in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Sonderjyske having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Sonderjyske. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Aarhus Analysis

Aarhus sit 11 with 5 points after 9 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 0 wins, 5 draws, and 4 defeats with a 11:17 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on J. Serra (3 goals), Kristian Fredrik Malt Arnstad (2 goals), Frederik Emmery (1 goals), with creative support from Frederik Emmery (2 assists), S. Jørgensen (2 assists), M. Knudsen (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, the split record of 0 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Sonderjyske Analysis

With 5 points from 9 games and a place of 12, Sonderjyske still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 6 defeats with a 12:21 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on M. Haidara (4 goals), O. Hyseni (3 goals), I. Seydi (2 goals), with creative support from O. Hyseni (2 assists), S. Emini (2 assists), J. Christensen (2 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 0 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Aarhus won 7 times, Sonderjyske won 4 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 32:19 from Aarhus's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 12 matches, with an average of 3.64 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (82.1%)
Predicted formations: Aarhus 3-4-2-1 / Sonderjyske 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Aarhus wins 7, draws 3, Sonderjyske wins 4

Standings

Superliga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 9 8 0 1 23:8 15 24
W W W W W
2 9 5 4 0 17:9 8 19
D W D W D
3 9 5 2 2 15:8 7 17
W D L W W
4 9 5 2 2 14:10 4 17
L W D L W
5 9 4 1 4 12:15 -3 13
L L L L W
6 9 3 2 4 15:16 -1 11
D L W L W
7 9 2 4 3 12:12 0 10
W D D D L
8 9 3 1 5 11:14 -3 10
L L W W L
9 9 2 3 4 8:14 -6 9
D W L D D
10 9 1 4 4 10:16 -6 7
L D W D L
11 9 0 5 4 11:17 -6 5
D L D L L
12 9 1 2 6 12:21 -9 5
W D L L L
Play-offs
Relegation Playoffs