CHILE PRIMERA DIVISIóN
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Estadio Bicentenario Municipal de La Florida
Referee: Mario Salvo Sepulveda, Chile

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 45.4%
Odds 2.02
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds 1.83
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds 2.11
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
45.4%
2.02
BTTS Yes
78.8%
1.83
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
2.11
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
72.8%
1.28
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.25
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.00
Probability Distribution
A. Italiano Win 45.4%
Draw 15.6%
Union La Calera Win 39%
Expected Goals (xG)
A. Italiano1.38
Union La Calera1.34
Recent Form (Last 5)
A. Italiano A. Italiano
WWDLW
32 GF / 33 GA
Union La Calera Union La Calera
WLDWL
34 GF / 38 GA
Key Stats
1.28
Average Goals Scored
1.36
1.32
Average Goals Conceded
1.52
13
BTTS Yes
12
15
Over 2.5
16
3.11
Shots on Goal
3.47

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

A. Italiano A. Italiano 25 matches
Union La Calera Union La Calera 25 matches
A. Italiano Statistic Union La Calera
9 Wins 8
6 Draws 6
10 Losses 11
32 Goals For 34
33 Goals Against 38
1.28 Avg Goals Scored 1.36
1.32 Avg Goals Conceded 1.52
13 BTTS Yes 12
17 Over 1.5 19
15 Over 2.5 16
5 Over 3.5 9
7 Clean Sheets 7
7 Failed To Score 7
3.11 Shots On Goal 3.47
10.42 Total Shots 10.21
3.63 Corners 5.32
47.8% Ball Possession 50.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Union La Calera. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with A. Italiano expected to line up in 4-1-3-2 and Union La Calera in 5-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Union La Calera having the stronger overall control. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

A. Italiano Analysis

A. Italiano sit 13 with 20 points after 18 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 5 wins, 5 draws, and 8 losses, while the 22:25 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Michael Vadulli (3 goals), Giovani Chiaverano (2 goals), Diego Coelho (2 goals), with creative support from Esteban Matus (2 assists), Giovani Chiaverano (1 assists), Federico Mateos (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, the record of 4 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Union La Calera Analysis

Union La Calera sit 16 with 13 points after 18 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 3 wins, 4 draws, and 11 defeats with a 16:35 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Kevin Méndez (3 goals), Sebastián Sáez (3 goals), Francisco Jose Pozzo (2 goals), with creative support from Kevin Méndez (3 assists), Christopher Díaz (3 assists), Nicolás Avellaneda (1 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed 1 wins, 1 draws, and 6 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, A. Italiano won 3 times, Union La Calera won 8 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:26 from A. Italiano's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.87 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (84.4%)
Predicted formations: A. Italiano 4-1-3-2 / Union La Calera 5-4-1
H2H summary: A. Italiano wins 3, draws 4, Union La Calera wins 8
Last matches: A. Italiano
16.08.26
Pri
A. Italiano
Everton de Vina
1
1
D
11.08.26
Pri
A. Italiano
Nublense
2
2
D
01.08.26
Pri
A. Italiano
Universidad de Concepcion
1
0
W
26.07.26
Pri
A. Italiano
Universidad de Chile
1
2
L
11.07.26
Cop
A. Italiano
Magallanes
1
0
W
05.07.26
Cop
A. Italiano
Deportes Santa Cruz
1
2
L
30.06.26
Cop
A. Italiano
Palestino
3
2
W
27.06.26
Cop
A. Italiano
Magallanes
2
1
W
24.06.26
Cop
A. Italiano
Palestino
2
1
W
19.06.26
Cop
A. Italiano
Deportes Santa Cruz
0
1
L
13.06.26
Pri
A. Italiano
D. La Serena
1
1
D
01.06.26
Pri
A. Italiano
Palestino
0
0
D
23.05.26
Pri
A. Italiano
Cobresal
2
1
W
16.05.26
Pri
A. Italiano
Coquimbo Unido
0
3
L
25.04.26
Pri
A. Italiano
Deportes Limache
2
2
D
20.04.26
Pri
A. Italiano
Huachipato
2
3
L
11.04.26
Pri
A. Italiano
U. Catolica
3
4
L
03.04.26
Pri
A. Italiano
O'Higgins
1
2
L
13.03.26
Pri
A. Italiano
Concepción
3
0
W
07.03.26
Pri
A. Italiano
Colo Colo
0
1
L
Last matches: Union La Calera
16.08.26
Pri
Union La Calera
Nublense
1
2
L
09.08.26
Pri
Union La Calera
Colo Colo
1
2
L
05.08.26
Cop
Union La Calera
Santiago Wanderers
4
0
W
01.08.26
Pri
Union La Calera
Cobresal
0
4
L
27.07.26
Pri
Union La Calera
Everton de Vina
1
1
D
04.07.26
Cop
Union La Calera
Union San Felipe
1
1
D
02.07.26
Cop
Union La Calera
Universidad de Chile
1
0
W
28.06.26
Cop
Union La Calera
Santiago Wanderers
4
0
W
24.06.26
Cop
Union La Calera
Universidad de Chile
3
3
D
21.06.26
Cop
Union La Calera
Union San Felipe
0
2
L
14.06.26
Pri
Union La Calera
Universidad de Chile
2
2
D
30.05.26
Pri
Union La Calera
Universidad de Concepcion
0
0
D
24.05.26
Pri
Union La Calera
Palestino
1
2
L
17.05.26
Pri
Union La Calera
Huachipato
1
3
L
24.04.26
Pri
Union La Calera
Coquimbo Unido
1
2
L
21.04.26
Pri
Union La Calera
U. Catolica
2
1
W
14.04.26
Pri
Union La Calera
Concepción
1
0
W
04.04.26
Pri
Union La Calera
Deportes Limache
0
4
L
16.03.26
Pri
Union La Calera
O'Higgins
3
3
D
06.03.26
Pri
Union La Calera
D. La Serena
0
3
L
H2H: A. Italiano vs Union La Calera
02.05.26
H2H
A. Italiano
Union La Calera
1
1
D
20.03.26
H2H
Union La Calera
A. Italiano
0
1
W
27.02.26
H2H
Union La Calera
A. Italiano
3
0
L
17.10.25
H2H
A. Italiano
Union La Calera
4
3
W
25.04.25
H2H
Union La Calera
A. Italiano
1
0
L
02.09.24
H2H
Union La Calera
A. Italiano
2
1
L
15.04.24
H2H
A. Italiano
Union La Calera
2
2
D
24.09.23
H2H
A. Italiano
Union La Calera
2
1
W
18.03.23
H2H
Union La Calera
A. Italiano
0
0
D
10.10.22
H2H
A. Italiano
Union La Calera
0
2
L
10.05.22
H2H
Union La Calera
A. Italiano
1
0
L
12.09.21
H2H
A. Italiano
Union La Calera
2
3
L
18.04.21
H2H
Union La Calera
A. Italiano
1
1
D
18.01.21
H2H
A. Italiano
Union La Calera
1
3
L
04.10.20
H2H
Union La Calera
A. Italiano
3
2
L
Last matches: A. Italiano
11.08.26
Pri
A. Italiano
Nublense
2
2
D
26.07.26
Pri
A. Italiano
Universidad de Chile
1
2
L
30.06.26
Cop
A. Italiano
Palestino
3
2
W
27.06.26
Cop
A. Italiano
Magallanes
2
1
W
19.06.26
Cop
A. Italiano
Deportes Santa Cruz
0
1
L
13.06.26
Pri
A. Italiano
D. La Serena
1
1
D
23.05.26
Pri
A. Italiano
Cobresal
2
1
W
25.04.26
Pri
A. Italiano
Deportes Limache
2
2
D
11.04.26
Pri
A. Italiano
U. Catolica
3
4
L
13.03.26
Pri
A. Italiano
Concepción
3
0
W
07.03.26
Pri
A. Italiano
Colo Colo
0
1
L
22.02.26
Pri
A. Italiano
Everton de Vina
1
0
W
06.02.26
Pri
A. Italiano
Universidad de Concepcion
3
0
W
29.09.25
Cop
A. Italiano
Huachipato
1
0
W
16.07.25
Cop
A. Italiano
Curico Unido
1
0
W
01.07.25
Cop
A. Italiano
Deportes Temuco
2
0
W
11.05.25
Cop
A. Italiano
Palestino
2
2
D
07.05.25
Cop
A. Italiano
Concepción
2
1
W
06.02.25
Cop
A. Italiano
Union Espanola
3
1
W
30.06.24
Cop
A. Italiano
Deportes Santa Cruz
0
2
L
H2H at home: A. Italiano
02.05.26
H2H
A. Italiano
Union La Calera
1
1
D
17.10.25
H2H
A. Italiano
Union La Calera
4
3
W
15.04.24
H2H
A. Italiano
Union La Calera
2
2
D
24.09.23
H2H
A. Italiano
Union La Calera
2
1
W
10.10.22
H2H
A. Italiano
Union La Calera
0
2
L
12.09.21
H2H
A. Italiano
Union La Calera
2
3
L
18.01.21
H2H
A. Italiano
Union La Calera
1
3
L
Last matches: Union La Calera
16.08.26
Pri
Union La Calera
Nublense
1
2
L
05.08.26
Cop
Union La Calera
Santiago Wanderers
4
0
W
01.08.26
Pri
Union La Calera
Cobresal
0
4
L
04.07.26
Cop
Union La Calera
Union San Felipe
1
1
D
02.07.26
Cop
Union La Calera
Universidad de Chile
1
0
W
30.05.26
Pri
Union La Calera
Universidad de Concepcion
0
0
D
17.05.26
Pri
Union La Calera
Huachipato
1
3
L
21.04.26
Pri
Union La Calera
U. Catolica
2
1
W
04.04.26
Pri
Union La Calera
Deportes Limache
0
4
L
06.03.26
Pri
Union La Calera
D. La Serena
0
3
L
15.02.26
Pri
Union La Calera
Colo Colo
0
1
L
02.02.26
Pri
Union La Calera
Everton de Vina
1
0
W
08.06.25
Cop
Union La Calera
Coquimbo Unido
1
2
L
04.04.25
Cop
Union La Calera
Everton de Vina
0
2
L
21.03.25
Cop
Union La Calera
U. Catolica
1
0
W
27.01.25
Cop
Union La Calera
San Luis
1
0
W
18.06.24
Cop
Union La Calera
San Antonio Unido
2
2
D
04.07.23
Cop
Union La Calera
Colo Colo
1
6
L
10.04.23
Cop
Union La Calera
Trasandino
1
1
D
18.06.22
Cop
Union La Calera
Santiago Morning
2
1
W
H2H away: Union La Calera
02.05.26
H2H
A. Italiano
Union La Calera
1
1
D
17.10.25
H2H
A. Italiano
Union La Calera
4
3
L
15.04.24
H2H
A. Italiano
Union La Calera
2
2
D
24.09.23
H2H
A. Italiano
Union La Calera
2
1
L
10.10.22
H2H
A. Italiano
Union La Calera
0
2
W
12.09.21
H2H
A. Italiano
Union La Calera
2
3
W
18.01.21
H2H
A. Italiano
Union La Calera
1
3
W
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.89
Draw 3.42
Home 2.02
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.57
Draw 2.21
Home 2.63
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.34
Over 1.75 1.43
Over 2.0 1.56
Over 2.25 1.85
Over 2.5 2.11
Over 2.75 2.43
Over 3.0 2.66
Over 3.5 3.71
Over 4.5 6.36
Under 1.5 3.28
Under 1.75 2.89
Under 2.0 2.48
Under 2.25 2.02
Under 2.5 1.76
Under 2.75 1.58
Under 3.0 1.47
Under 3.5 1.28
Under 4.5 1.11
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.60
Draw 3.40
Home 2.00
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.33
Draw 2.10
Home 2.62
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.75
Draw 2.38
Home 2.38
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.06
Over 1.5 1.33
Over 2.5 2.08
Over 3.5 3.75
Over 4.5 8.00
Over 5.5 17.00
Over 6.5 34.00
Under 0.5 10.00
Under 1.5 3.25
Under 2.5 1.73
Under 3.5 1.25
Under 4.5 1.08
Under 5.5 1.02
Under 6.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.72
Draw 3.25
Home 1.92
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.44
Draw 2.10
Home 2.52
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.96
Draw 2.40
Home 2.32
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.04
Over 0.75 1.03
Over 1.0 1.06
Over 1.25 1.21
Over 1.5 1.30
Over 1.75 1.39
Over 2.0 1.50
Over 2.25 1.72
Over 2.5 2.02
Over 2.75 2.34
Over 3.0 2.75
Over 3.25 3.05
Over 3.5 3.35
Over 3.75 4.18
Over 4.0 5.30
Over 4.25 6.77
Over 4.5 5.90
Over 5.0 9.60
Over 5.5 14.50
Over 6.5 34.00
Under 0.5 7.90
Under 0.75 8.35
Under 1.0 6.80
Under 1.25 3.90
Under 1.5 3.20
Under 1.75 2.74
Under 2.0 2.40
Under 2.25 2.00
Under 2.5 1.70
Under 2.75 1.54
Under 3.0 1.40
Under 3.25 1.33
Under 3.5 1.28
Under 3.75 1.18
Under 4.0 1.11
Under 4.25 1.06
Under 4.5 1.08
Under 5.0 1.01
Under 5.5 1.02
Under 6.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.55
Draw 3.30
Home 1.94
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.00
Draw 2.08
Home 2.43
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.60
Draw 2.48
Home 2.35
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.30
Over 2.0 1.48
Over 2.5 1.95
Over 3.0 2.75
Over 3.25 3.05
Over 3.5 3.35
Over 4.0 5.50
Over 4.25 5.75
Over 4.5 6.00
Under 1.5 3.10
Under 2.0 2.40
Under 2.5 1.73
Under 3.0 1.38
Under 3.25 1.30
Under 3.5 1.26
Under 4.0 1.10
Under 4.25 1.09
Under 4.5 1.08

Standings

Primera División
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 15 1 3 40:19 21 46
D W W W W
2 19 10 6 3 26:13 13 36
W W W W W
3 18 9 3 6 40:26 14 30
W L D W W
4 19 9 3 7 31:27 4 30
W L W L W
5 18 7 8 3 24:22 2 29
W D W D W
6 19 7 6 6 28:22 6 27
D W L D L
7 19 8 2 9 22:23 -1 26
W W W W W
8 17 7 4 6 24:21 3 25
D L D W D
9 18 7 3 8 35:30 5 24
L W L L L
10 19 7 3 9 24:30 -6 24
D L W L L
11 19 7 3 9 28:36 -8 24
L L L D D
12 19 5 8 6 28:31 -3 23
W D L D D
13 19 5 6 8 23:26 -3 21
D D W L D
14 18 5 4 9 13:30 -17 19
L L L L D
15 19 5 2 12 26:36 -10 17
L L W D L
16 19 3 4 12 17:37 -20 13
L L L D D