CHILE PRIMERA DIVISIóN
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Bicentenario de La Florida
Referee: M. Riquelme
A. Italiano
Match Timeline
Nublense
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
9'
M. Rivera · Assist: J. Campusano
Nublense
33'
M. Fuentes · Assist: C. Pinares
A. Italiano
🟨
42'
Enzo Ferrario
A. Italiano
🟨
45+3'
Pablo Calderón
Nublense
🔄
65'
B. Soto ↔ A. Uribe
A. Italiano
🔄
65'
M. Fuentes ↔ M. Sandoval
A. Italiano
🔄
67'
P. Calderon ↔ F. Campos Mosqueira
Nublense
🔄
67'
L. Molina Canto ↔ C. Mansilla
Nublense
🟨
69'
Felipe Campos
Nublense
🔄
73'
F. Mateos ↔ F. Salomoni
A. Italiano
🔄
74'
F. Troyansky ↔ D. Coelho
A. Italiano
🔄
75'
G. Graciani ↔ E. Calderon
Nublense
🔄
83'
P. Guajardo ↔ D. Pizarro
A. Italiano
🟨
85'
Marcelo Ortíz
A. Italiano
VAR
88'
Matías Plaza
Nublense
🟨
90+5'
Daniel Saavedra
Nublense
🔄
90+4'
M. Rivera ↔ D. Saavedra
Nublense
🔄
90+4'
M. Plaza ↔ A. Valdes
Nublense
90'
M. Plaza
Nublense
90'
C. Pinares
A. Italiano

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 50.4%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds -
1 agree / 0 disagree
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
50.4%
-
BTTS Yes
67.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
86%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 1-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
A. Italiano Win 34.5%
Draw 15.2%
Nublense Win 50.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
A. Italiano1.19
Nublense1.31
Recent Form (Last 5)
A. Italiano A. Italiano
WWDLW
29 GF / 30 GA
Nublense Nublense
WLDWL
29 GF / 24 GA
Key Stats
1.26
Average Goals Scored
1.32
1.3
Average Goals Conceded
1.09
11
BTTS Yes
10
14
Over 2.5
7
3.06
Shots on Goal
4

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

A. Italiano A. Italiano 23 matches
Nublense Nublense 22 matches
A. Italiano Statistic Nublense
9 Wins 10
4 Draws 8
10 Losses 4
29 Goals For 29
30 Goals Against 24
1.26 Avg Goals Scored 1.32
1.3 Avg Goals Conceded 1.09
11 BTTS Yes 10
15 Over 1.5 13
14 Over 2.5 7
4 Over 3.5 6
7 Clean Sheets 10
7 Failed To Score 3
3.06 Shots On Goal 4
10.94 Total Shots 12.63
3.88 Corners 4.5
50.1% Ball Possession 45.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features Nublense's more proactive style and A. Italiano's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Nublense. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with A. Italiano expected to line up in 4-1-3-2 and Nublense in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Nublense having the stronger overall control.

A. Italiano Analysis

A. Italiano are currently 12 in the standings with 19 points from 17 matches. Their overall return of 5 wins, 4 draws, and 8 losses with goals at 20:23 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Giovani Chiaverano (2 goals), Michael Vadulli (2 goals), Diego Coelho (2 goals), with creative support from Esteban Matus (2 assists), Giovani Chiaverano (1 assists), Federico Mateos (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, their split return of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Nublense Analysis

Nublense arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 5 place with 25 points after 16 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 6 wins, 7 draws, and 3 losses, while the 20:19 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Ignacio Jeraldino (2 goals), Lucas Molina (2 goals), Matías Plaza (1 goals), with creative support from Matías Plaza (3 assists), Gabriel Graciani (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 3 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, A. Italiano won 6 times, Nublense won 6 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:17 from A. Italiano's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.43 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (84.8%)
Predicted formations: A. Italiano 4-1-3-2 / Nublense 4-4-2
H2H summary: A. Italiano wins 6, draws 2, Nublense wins 6
Stats
A. Italiano A. Italiano
Nublense Nublense
Shots on Goal
7
Shots on Goal
2
Shots off Goal
3
Shots off Goal
1
Blocked Shots
2
Blocked Shots
0
3 Corner Kicks 1
12 Fouls 20
1 Offsides 4
58% Ball Possession 42%
12 Total Shots 3
7 Shots on Goal 2
3 Shots off Goal 1
2 Blocked Shots 0
7 Shots insidebox 2
5 Shots outsidebox 1
0 Goalkeeper Saves 5
527 Total passes 389
440 Passes accurate 311
0 expected_goals 0
🟨 2 Yellow Cards 3 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

A. Italiano
Formation
Nublense
T. Ahumada
T. Ahumada
R. Rebolledo
R. Rebolledo
E. Ferrario
E. Ferrario
M. Ortiz
M. Ortiz
V. Zenteno
V. Zenteno
B. Soto
B. Soto
P. Guajardo
P. Guajardo
F. Mateos
F. Mateos
C. Pinares
🎯
C. Pinares
F. Troyansky
F. Troyansky
M. Fuentes
M. Fuentes
N. Perez
N. Perez
P. Calderon
P. Calderon
O. Bosso Torres
O. Bosso Torres
S. Valencia
S. Valencia
D. Sanhueza
D. Sanhueza
L. Reyes
L. Reyes
M. Plaza
M. Plaza
M. Rivera
M. Rivera
J. Campusano
🎯
J. Campusano
G. Graciani
G. Graciani
L. Molina Canto
L. Molina Canto
A. Italiano 4-1-3-2
Starting XI
1
T. Ahumada
G
35
R. Rebolledo
D
13
E. Ferrario
🟨 42'
D
29
M. Ortiz
🟨 85'
D
2
V. Zenteno
D
32
B. Soto
↓ 65'
M
7
P. Guajardo
↓ 83'
M
28
F. Mateos
↓ 73'
19
C. Pinares
⚽ 90' 🎯 33'
M
11
F. Troyansky
↓ 74'
F
27
M. Fuentes
⚽ 33' ↓ 65'
F
Substitutes
25
P. Garrido
8
M. Collao
M
30
A. Uribe
↑ 65'
M
22
D. Pizarro
↑ 83'
F
17
F. Loyola
M
14
D. Monreal
6
M. Sandoval
↑ 65'
M
9
D. Coelho
↑ 74'
F
3
F. Salomoni
↑ 73'
Nublense 3-5-2
Starting XI
1
N. Perez
G
6
P. Calderon
↓ 67' 🟨 45+3'
D
4
O. Bosso Torres
D
15
S. Valencia
16
D. Sanhueza
M
21
L. Reyes
M
10
M. Plaza
⚽ 90' ↓ 90+4'
M
28
M. Rivera
⚽ 9' ↓ 90+4'
M
14
J. Campusano
🎯 9'
M
8
G. Graciani
↓ 75'
F
11
L. Molina Canto
↓ 67'
F
Substitutes
25
H. Munoz
G
5
F. Campos Mosqueira
↑ 67' 🟨 69'
D
26
E. Calderon
↑ 75'
13
D. Saavedra
↑ 90+4'
27
V. Guzman
D
3
C. Salomon
D
36
B. Munoz
22
A. Valdes
↑ 90+4'
M
35
C. Mansilla
↑ 67'
Last matches: A. Italiano
22.08.26
Pri
A. Italiano
Union La Calera
0
0
D
16.08.26
Pri
A. Italiano
Everton de Vina
1
1
D
01.08.26
Pri
A. Italiano
Universidad de Concepcion
1
0
W
26.07.26
Pri
A. Italiano
Universidad de Chile
1
2
L
11.07.26
Cop
A. Italiano
Magallanes
1
0
W
05.07.26
Cop
A. Italiano
Deportes Santa Cruz
1
2
L
30.06.26
Cop
A. Italiano
Palestino
3
2
W
27.06.26
Cop
A. Italiano
Magallanes
2
1
W
24.06.26
Cop
A. Italiano
Palestino
2
1
W
19.06.26
Cop
A. Italiano
Deportes Santa Cruz
0
1
L
13.06.26
Pri
A. Italiano
D. La Serena
1
1
D
01.06.26
Pri
A. Italiano
Palestino
0
0
D
23.05.26
Pri
A. Italiano
Cobresal
2
1
W
16.05.26
Pri
A. Italiano
Coquimbo Unido
0
3
L
25.04.26
Pri
A. Italiano
Deportes Limache
2
2
D
20.04.26
Pri
A. Italiano
Huachipato
2
3
L
11.04.26
Pri
A. Italiano
U. Catolica
3
4
L
03.04.26
Pri
A. Italiano
O'Higgins
1
2
L
13.03.26
Pri
A. Italiano
Concepción
3
0
W
07.03.26
Pri
A. Italiano
Colo Colo
0
1
L
Last matches: Nublense
23.08.26
Pri
Nublense
U. Catolica
2
1
W
16.08.26
Pri
Nublense
Union La Calera
2
1
W
04.08.26
Cop
Nublense
Rangers de Talca
1
0
W
26.07.26
Pri
Nublense
Palestino
2
0
W
05.07.26
Cop
Nublense
Curico Unido
2
2
D
01.07.26
Cop
Nublense
Universidad de Concepcion
1
0
W
28.06.26
Cop
Nublense
Rangers de Talca
1
0
W
25.06.26
Cop
Nublense
Universidad de Concepcion
4
2
W
21.06.26
Cop
Nublense
Curico Unido
0
1
L
14.06.26
Pri
Nublense
Huachipato
2
2
D
29.05.26
Pri
Nublense
Cobresal
1
0
W
23.05.26
Pri
Nublense
Universidad de Concepcion
2
2
D
17.05.26
Pri
Nublense
Colo Colo
2
6
L
25.04.26
Pri
Nublense
O'Higgins
0
2
L
19.04.26
Pri
Nublense
Coquimbo Unido
1
1
D
12.04.26
Pri
Nublense
Universidad de Chile
1
0
W
04.04.26
Pri
Nublense
Everton de Vina
0
0
D
15.03.26
Pri
Nublense
D. La Serena
2
2
D
06.03.26
Pri
Nublense
Concepción
2
0
W
01.03.26
Pri
Nublense
U. Catolica
1
2
L
H2H: A. Italiano vs Nublense
11.08.26
H2H
A. Italiano
Nublense
2
2
D
15.02.26
H2H
Nublense
A. Italiano
1
0
L
01.12.25
H2H
A. Italiano
Nublense
1
0
W
16.06.25
H2H
Nublense
A. Italiano
2
3
W
04.08.24
H2H
A. Italiano
Nublense
0
1
L
02.03.24
H2H
Nublense
A. Italiano
1
2
W
08.10.23
H2H
A. Italiano
Nublense
1
0
W
21.07.23
H2H
A. Italiano
Nublense
0
1
L
13.07.23
H2H
Nublense
A. Italiano
0
0
D
25.04.23
H2H
Nublense
A. Italiano
2
5
W
30.06.22
H2H
Nublense
A. Italiano
1
2
W
07.02.22
H2H
A. Italiano
Nublense
1
2
L
19.10.21
H2H
A. Italiano
Nublense
0
3
L
08.06.21
H2H
Nublense
A. Italiano
1
0
L
Last matches: A. Italiano
22.08.26
Pri
A. Italiano
Union La Calera
0
0
D
26.07.26
Pri
A. Italiano
Universidad de Chile
1
2
L
30.06.26
Cop
A. Italiano
Palestino
3
2
W
27.06.26
Cop
A. Italiano
Magallanes
2
1
W
19.06.26
Cop
A. Italiano
Deportes Santa Cruz
0
1
L
13.06.26
Pri
A. Italiano
D. La Serena
1
1
D
23.05.26
Pri
A. Italiano
Cobresal
2
1
W
25.04.26
Pri
A. Italiano
Deportes Limache
2
2
D
11.04.26
Pri
A. Italiano
U. Catolica
3
4
L
13.03.26
Pri
A. Italiano
Concepción
3
0
W
07.03.26
Pri
A. Italiano
Colo Colo
0
1
L
22.02.26
Pri
A. Italiano
Everton de Vina
1
0
W
06.02.26
Pri
A. Italiano
Universidad de Concepcion
3
0
W
29.09.25
Cop
A. Italiano
Huachipato
1
0
W
16.07.25
Cop
A. Italiano
Curico Unido
1
0
W
01.07.25
Cop
A. Italiano
Deportes Temuco
2
0
W
11.05.25
Cop
A. Italiano
Palestino
2
2
D
07.05.25
Cop
A. Italiano
Concepción
2
1
W
06.02.25
Cop
A. Italiano
Union Espanola
3
1
W
30.06.24
Cop
A. Italiano
Deportes Santa Cruz
0
2
L
H2H at home: A. Italiano
11.08.26
H2H
A. Italiano
Nublense
2
2
D
01.12.25
H2H
A. Italiano
Nublense
1
0
W
04.08.24
H2H
A. Italiano
Nublense
0
1
L
08.10.23
H2H
A. Italiano
Nublense
1
0
W
21.07.23
H2H
A. Italiano
Nublense
0
1
L
07.02.22
H2H
A. Italiano
Nublense
1
2
L
19.10.21
H2H
A. Italiano
Nublense
0
3
L
Last matches: Nublense
23.08.26
Pri
Nublense
U. Catolica
2
1
W
01.07.26
Cop
Nublense
Universidad de Concepcion
1
0
W
28.06.26
Cop
Nublense
Rangers de Talca
1
0
W
21.06.26
Cop
Nublense
Curico Unido
0
1
L
29.05.26
Pri
Nublense
Cobresal
1
0
W
17.05.26
Pri
Nublense
Colo Colo
2
6
L
19.04.26
Pri
Nublense
Coquimbo Unido
1
1
D
04.04.26
Pri
Nublense
Everton de Vina
0
0
D
06.03.26
Pri
Nublense
Concepción
2
0
W
20.02.26
Pri
Nublense
Union La Calera
1
0
W
01.02.26
Pri
Nublense
Palestino
1
1
D
16.07.25
Cop
Nublense
Huachipato
1
2
L
07.06.25
Cop
Nublense
Magallanes
1
1
D
10.05.25
Cop
Nublense
Curico Unido
1
2
L
22.03.25
Cop
Nublense
Deportes Santa Cruz
2
3
L
31.01.25
Cop
Nublense
Universidad de Concepcion
3
2
W
20.11.24
Cop
Nublense
Universidad de Chile
0
1
L
17.11.24
Cop
Nublense
Magallanes
1
1
D
24.10.24
Cop
Nublense
D. Puerto Montt
1
1
D
08.07.24
Cop
Nublense
Linares Unido
1
2
L
H2H away: Nublense
11.08.26
H2H
A. Italiano
Nublense
2
2
D
01.12.25
H2H
A. Italiano
Nublense
1
0
L
04.08.24
H2H
A. Italiano
Nublense
0
1
W
08.10.23
H2H
A. Italiano
Nublense
1
0
L
21.07.23
H2H
A. Italiano
Nublense
0
1
W
07.02.22
H2H
A. Italiano
Nublense
1
2
W
19.10.21
H2H
A. Italiano
Nublense
0
3
W

Standings

Primera División
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 15 1 3 40:19 21 46
D W W W W
2 19 10 6 3 26:13 13 36
W W W W W
3 19 8 8 3 26:23 3 32
W W D W D
4 19 9 3 7 41:28 13 30
L W L D W
5 19 9 3 7 31:27 4 30
W L W L W
6 19 8 3 8 38:31 7 27
W L W L L
7 19 7 6 6 28:22 6 27
D W L D L
8 19 8 2 9 22:23 -1 26
W W W W W
9 17 7 4 6 24:21 3 25
D L D W D
10 19 7 3 9 24:30 -6 24
D L W L L
11 20 7 3 10 29:39 -10 24
L L L L D
12 19 5 8 6 28:31 -3 23
W D L D D
13 20 5 7 8 23:26 -3 22
D D D W L
14 18 5 4 9 13:30 -17 19
L L L L D
15 19 5 2 12 26:36 -10 17
L L W D L
16 20 3 5 12 17:37 -20 14
D L L L D