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23.05.2026 16:30
Estadio Bicentenario Municipal de La Florida
Referee: Diego Flores Seguel
A. Italiano
Match Timeline
Cobresal
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
13'
J. Brea · Assist: C. Yanis
Cobresal
VAR
45+3'
Michael Vadulli
A. Italiano
VAR
45+3'
José Tiznado
Cobresal
⚽
45'
M. Fuentes
A. Italiano
🔄
46'
M. Ortiz ↔ F. Loyola
A. Italiano
⚽
49'
D. Coelho
A. Italiano
🔄
57'
A. Astudillo ↔ C. Moreno
Cobresal
🔄
57'
R. Sandoval ↔ A. Castillo
Cobresal
🔄
60'
F. Mateos ↔ M. Sandoval
A. Italiano
🔄
75'
G. Chiaverano ↔ R. Rebolledo
A. Italiano
🔄
75'
O. J. Rojas Munoz ↔ D. Monreal
A. Italiano
🔄
80'
F. Frias ↔ M. Sepulveda
Cobresal
🔄
83'
M. Fuentes ↔ F. Troyansky
A. Italiano
🟨
90+5'
Agustin Nadruz
Cobresal

A. Italiano vs Cobresal Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 75.2%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 13.3%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 12.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
75.2%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
13.3%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
12.4%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
89%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-0
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
A. Italiano Win 75.2%
Draw 12.2%
Cobresal Win 12.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
A. Italiano1.58
Cobresal1.53
Recent Form (Last 5)
A. Italiano A. Italiano
WWDLW
15 GF / 19 GA
Cobresal Cobresal
WLDWL
18 GF / 25 GA
Key Stats
1.25
Average Goals Scored
1.5
1.58
Average Goals Conceded
2.08
4
BTTS Yes
8
8
Over 2.5
7
3
Shots on Goal
4.64

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

A. Italiano A. Italiano 12 matches
Cobresal Cobresal 12 matches
A. Italiano Statistic Cobresal
3 Wins 4
2 Draws 1
7 Losses 7
15 Goals For 18
19 Goals Against 25
1.25 Avg Goals Scored 1.5
1.58 Avg Goals Conceded 2.08
4 BTTS Yes 8
8 Over 1.5 8
8 Over 2.5 7
3 Over 3.5 7
4 Clean Sheets 2
5 Failed To Score 2
3 Shots On Goal 4.64
9.92 Total Shots 13.64
3.5 Corners 5.45
50.5% Ball Possession 43.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Cobresal. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with A. Italiano expected to line up in 3-4-1-2 and Cobresal in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Cobresal having the stronger overall control.

A. Italiano Analysis

A. Italiano approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 14 with 11 points from 12 matches. Their record of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 7 losses, together with goals at 15:19, reflects poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Much of their threat comes through F. Troyansky (3 goals), G. Chiaverano (3 goals), D. Coelho (1 goals), with creative support from E. Matus (3 assists), N. Aedo (2 assists), G. Chiaverano (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, the split record of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Cobresal Analysis

Cobresal sit 13 with 13 points after 12 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 4 wins, 1 draws, and 7 losses, together with goals at 18:23, reflects poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Much of their threat comes through Steffan Pino (6 goals), A. Nadruz (2 goals), Franco Frías (2 goals), with creative support from B. A. Carvallo U. (5 assists), G. Pacheco (2 assists), Julián Brea (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, the split record of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, A. Italiano won 9 times, Cobresal won 2 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 22:13 from A. Italiano's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.5 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (87.8%)
Predicted formations: A. Italiano 3-4-1-2 / Cobresal 4-4-2
H2H summary: A. Italiano wins 9, draws 3, Cobresal wins 2

Standings

Primera División
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 24 17 3 4 50:27 23 54
L D D W W
2 24 13 6 5 41:19 22 45
W W W L L
3 23 13 3 7 50:33 17 42
W W W W L
4 24 11 6 7 40:27 13 39
W W L W W
5 24 11 4 9 38:35 3 37
D L W L W
6 24 10 4 10 45:37 8 34
D L W W L
7 23 9 5 9 36:33 3 32
W L L W L
8 24 9 5 10 26:27 -1 32
D D L W D
9 24 8 8 8 28:37 -9 32
L L L L L
10 23 9 4 10 33:39 -6 31
W W D L L
11 24 7 9 8 36:41 -5 30
L L W W D
12 23 7 7 9 26:31 -5 28
W W L D D
13 24 8 3 13 28:38 -10 27
L L W L L
14 24 7 4 13 35:45 -10 25
D W L W D
15 24 6 5 13 18:40 -22 23
D L L L W
16 24 4 6 14 20:41 -21 18
D W L L D