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10.10.2026 00:45
Estadio 15 de Abril
Referee: Dario Herrera
Union Santa Fe
Match Timeline
Defensa Y Justicia
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
8'
Joaquin Mosqueira
Union Santa Fe
⚽
43'
Juan Manuel Gutiérrez · Assist: David Barbona
Defensa Y Justicia
⚽
45'
César Pérez · Assist: Juan Manuel Gutiérrez
Defensa Y Justicia
🟨
45+4'
Jeremías Lucco
Defensa Y Justicia
🔄
45'
Joaquin Mosqueira ↔ Brahian Cuello
Union Santa Fe
🔄
60'
César Pérez ↔ Maximiliano Porcel
Defensa Y Justicia
🟨
66'
Leandro Fernández
Defensa Y Justicia
🟨
67'
Lucas Ayala
Union Santa Fe
🔄
68'
Mauro Luna Diale ↔ Julián Palacios
Union Santa Fe
🔄
68'
Erik Ramirez ↔ Marcelo Estigarriba
Union Santa Fe
🟨
71'
Julián Palacios
Union Santa Fe
🔄
73'
Jeremías Lucco ↔ Agustin Hausch
Defensa Y Justicia
🔄
74'
Leandro Fernández ↔ Tiziano Perrotta
Defensa Y Justicia
VAR
75'
Santiago Sosa
Defensa Y Justicia
🟥
76'
Santiago Sosa
Defensa Y Justicia
🟨
78'
Marcelo Estigarriba
Union Santa Fe
🔄
79'
David Barbona ↔ Ezequiel Burdín
Defensa Y Justicia
🔄
79'
Juan Manuel Gutiérrez ↔ Julian Lopez
Defensa Y Justicia
🔄
81'
Lucas Ayala ↔ Misael Aguirre
Union Santa Fe
🟨
85'
Cristian Tarragona
Union Santa Fe
🔄
88'
Tobias Javier Rubio ↔ Bruno Pittón
Union Santa Fe

Union Santa Fe vs Defensa Y Justicia Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 60.3%
Odds 2.41
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds 1.80
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds 2.20
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
60.3%
2.41 ▥
BTTS Yes
67.1%
1.80 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
2.20 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
71.9%
1.49 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.75 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.50 ▥
Probability Distribution
Union Santa Fe Win 60.3%
Draw 11.6%
Defensa Y Justicia Win 28.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Union Santa Fe1.36
Defensa Y Justicia1.33
Recent Form (Last 5)
Union Santa Fe Union Santa Fe
WWDLW
45 GF / 44 GA
Defensa Y Justicia Defensa Y Justicia
WLDWL
38 GF / 37 GA
Key Stats
1.45
Average Goals Scored
1.27
1.42
Average Goals Conceded
1.23
18
BTTS Yes
17
18
Over 2.5
14
4.86
Shots on Goal
4.33

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Union Santa Fe Union Santa Fe 31 matches
Defensa Y Justicia Defensa Y Justicia 30 matches
Union Santa Fe Statistic Defensa Y Justicia
11 Wins 12
7 Draws 10
13 Losses 8
45 Goals For 38
44 Goals Against 37
1.45 Avg Goals Scored 1.27
1.42 Avg Goals Conceded 1.23
18 BTTS Yes 17
26 Over 1.5 23
18 Over 2.5 14
9 Over 3.5 6
6 Clean Sheets 9
9 Failed To Score 7
4.86 Shots On Goal 4.33
15.24 Total Shots 11.74
4.55 Corners 4.22
48.4% Ball Possession 51.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and Union Santa Fe's more proactive style and Defensa Y Justicia's more cautious structure points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Union Santa Fe have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Union Santa Fe expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Defensa Y Justicia in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Defensa Y Justicia having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Defensa Y Justicia. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Union Santa Fe Analysis

With 21 points from 16 games and a place of 8, Union Santa Fe still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 5 wins, 6 draws, and 5 losses, together with goals at 24:20, reflects mixed form and are going through a difficult losing run. Much of their threat comes through C. Tarragona (7 goals), L. Menossi (4 goals), A. Colazo (4 goals), with creative support from J. Palacios (4 assists), C. Tarragona (1 assists), L. Menossi (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 3 wins, 4 draws, and 1 losses, which indicates a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with balanced attacking football.

Defensa Y Justicia Analysis

From their first 16 matches, Defensa Y Justicia have collected 19 points and now occupy 10 place in the table. Their overall return of 4 wins, 7 draws, and 5 losses with goals at 18:21 reflects good form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by D. Barbona (4 goals), J. Gutiérrez (2 goals), D. Martínez (2 goals), with creative support from D. Barbona (3 assists), J. Gutiérrez (3 assists), César Pérez (3 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, their split return of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Union Santa Fe won 5 times, Defensa Y Justicia won 6 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:16 from Union Santa Fe's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (88.4%)
Predicted formations: Union Santa Fe 4-4-2 / Defensa Y Justicia 4-3-3
H2H summary: Union Santa Fe wins 5, draws 4, Defensa Y Justicia wins 6

Standings

Apertura - Group A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 16 9 4 3 19:7 12 31
W L W L D
2 16 8 6 2 22:9 13 30
D W W W D
3 16 7 7 2 18:12 6 28
D W D W D
4 16 7 5 4 17:13 4 26
L L W L D
5 16 6 6 4 24:20 4 24
L W D W L
6 16 6 6 4 18:15 3 24
D W W W L
7 16 5 7 4 14:14 0 22
L L D W L
8 16 5 6 5 24:20 4 21
L L L W W
9 16 6 3 7 17:17 0 21
D W W W L
10 16 4 7 5 18:21 -3 19
W D W L W
11 16 5 4 7 14:22 -8 19
L D L D W
12 16 3 7 6 10:15 -5 16
D L L D L
13 16 4 4 8 11:21 -10 16
D D L L D
14 16 3 6 7 15:27 -12 15
D W D D D
15 16 1 8 7 5:12 -7 11
D D L D D
Knockout Phase