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JAPAN › J1 LEAGUE
10.10.2026 06:00
Ajinomoto Stadium
Referee: Hiroyuki Kimura
FC Tokyo
Match Timeline
Urawa
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
21'
Marcelo
FC Tokyo
🔄
24'
Harumi Minamino ↔ Ado Onaiwu
Urawa
VAR
30'
Takuro Kaneko
Urawa
🔄
45'
Tatsuki Seko ↔ Ryoma Watanabe
Urawa
🔄
61'
Kota Tawaratsumida ↔ Kein Sato
FC Tokyo
🔄
61'
Kashif Bangnagande ↔ Rio Omori
FC Tokyo
⚽
63'
Motoki Nagakura
FC Tokyo
⚽
69'
Soma Anzai · Assist: Motoki Nagakura
FC Tokyo
🔄
72'
Kaito Yasui ↔ Renji Hidano
Urawa
🔄
73'
Hayate Ueki ↔ Samuel Gustafson
Urawa
🔄
76'
Hirokazu Ishihara ↔ Fuki Yamada
FC Tokyo
🔄
76'
Marcelo ↔ Teruhito Nakagawa
FC Tokyo
🔄
77'
Kotaro Hayashi ↔ Hiiro Komori
Urawa
⚽
85'
Kein Sato
FC Tokyo
🔄
88'
Motoki Nagakura ↔ Dani Gómez
FC Tokyo

FC Tokyo vs Urawa Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 57.3%
Odds 1.72
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds 1.62
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds 1.68
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
57.3%
1.72 ▥
BTTS Yes
67.1%
1.62 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
1.68 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.83 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.60 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
8.50 ▥
Probability Distribution
FC Tokyo Win 57.3%
Draw 5.1%
Urawa Win 37.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
FC Tokyo1.95
Urawa1.6
Recent Form (Last 5)
FC Tokyo FC Tokyo
WWDLW
14 GF / 8 GA
Urawa Urawa
WLDWL
16 GF / 18 GA
Key Stats
1.75
Average Goals Scored
2
1
Average Goals Conceded
2.25
3
BTTS Yes
7
3
Over 2.5
7
4.75
Shots on Goal
4.13

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

FC Tokyo FC Tokyo 8 matches
Urawa Urawa 8 matches
FC Tokyo Statistic Urawa
5 Wins 4
2 Draws 0
1 Losses 4
14 Goals For 16
8 Goals Against 18
1.75 Avg Goals Scored 2
1 Avg Goals Conceded 2.25
3 BTTS Yes 7
7 Over 1.5 7
3 Over 2.5 7
2 Over 3.5 6
5 Clean Sheets 1
0 Failed To Score 0
4.75 Shots On Goal 4.13
15.13 Total Shots 14.75
4.88 Corners 4.38
51% Ball Possession 50.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by FC Tokyo's more proactive style and Urawa's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Urawa. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. FC Tokyo arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 5 with 17 points compared to Urawa in 10 on 12, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with FC Tokyo expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Urawa in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Urawa having the stronger overall control.

FC Tokyo Analysis

FC Tokyo come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 5 place with 17 points after 8 matches. With 5 wins, 2 draws, and 1 defeats plus a goal balance of 14:8, they continue to show very strong form and are on a winning streak. Their attacking quality is driven by M. Nagakura (4 goals), Marcelo Ryan (2 goals), S. Anzai (2 goals), with creative support from K. Sato (2 assists), M. Nagakura (1 assists), Marcelo Ryan (1 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. At home, the split of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

Urawa Analysis

Urawa sit 10 with 12 points after 8 league matches. Their overall return of 4 wins, 0 draws, and 4 losses with goals at 16:18 reflects very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Their attacking weight is carried by Matheus Sávio (3 goals), H. Minamino (3 goals), T. Kaneko (1 goals), with creative support from T. Kaneko (5 assists), R. Watanabe (2 assists), H. Ueki (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, FC Tokyo won 7 times, Urawa won 3 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:14 from FC Tokyo's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.9%)
Predicted formations: FC Tokyo 4-4-2 / Urawa 4-1-4-1
H2H summary: FC Tokyo wins 7, draws 5, Urawa wins 3

Standings

J-League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 9 7 0 2 21:14 7 21
W W W L L
2 9 6 1 2 14:9 5 19
L W W W W
3 8 5 2 1 20:6 14 17
W W L W D
4 8 5 2 1 21:10 11 17
L D W W D
5 8 5 2 1 14:8 6 17
W W W D W
6 9 5 1 3 19:16 3 16
W D L L L
7 8 4 2 2 13:9 4 14
W D W D L
8 8 3 4 1 16:12 4 13
D W W L W
9 8 4 1 3 11:10 1 13
L W W W L
10
Urawa Away
8 4 0 4 16:18 -2 12
W L W W W
11 8 3 2 3 7:12 -5 11
D L D W L
12 8 3 1 4 6:8 -2 10
W W L D L
13 8 2 3 3 11:11 0 9
L L D W D
14 8 2 2 4 11:15 -4 8
W L L D W
15 8 2 2 4 10:15 -5 8
D W L D L
16 8 2 0 6 7:14 -7 6
L L L L W
17 9 1 3 5 8:16 -8 6
L L L L D
18 8 1 1 6 9:12 -3 4
L L D L L
19 8 0 4 4 4:12 -8 4
L D D L L
20 8 1 1 6 7:18 -11 4
L D W L L
Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
Relegation - J2 League