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JAPAN › J1 LEAGUE
10.10.2026 06:00
Best Denki Stadium
Referee: Akihiko Ikeuchi
Avispa Fukuoka
Match Timeline
Fagiano Okayama
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
7'
Yota Maejima · Assist: Keiya Shiihashi
Avispa Fukuoka
🟨
36'
Kamiya Yuta
Fagiano Okayama
🔄
45'
Kota Kawano ↔ Ataru Esaka
Fagiano Okayama
🔄
45'
Kamiya Yuta ↔ Eiji Miyamoto
Fagiano Okayama
🟨
47'
Masato Shigemi
Avispa Fukuoka
🔄
56'
Towa Yamane ↔ Noah Kenshin Browne
Fagiano Okayama
⚽
61'
Kosuke Shirai · Assist: Yugo Tatsuta
Fagiano Okayama
🔄
66'
Masato Yuzawa ↔ Kaoru Yamawaki
Avispa Fukuoka
🔄
66'
Teppei Oka ↔ Yu Hashimoto
Avispa Fukuoka
🔄
66'
Masato Shigemi ↔ Yuji Kitajima
Avispa Fukuoka
🟨
67'
Yuma Tsujioka
Avispa Fukuoka
⚽
76'
Yu Hashimoto
Avispa Fukuoka
🔄
78'
Kosuke Shirai ↔ Masaya Matsumoto
Fagiano Okayama
🔄
81'
Na Sang-Ho ↔ Ryoga Sato
Fagiano Okayama
🟨
82'
Yuji Kitajima
Avispa Fukuoka
🔄
83'
Werik Popo ↔ Abdul Hanan Sani Brown
Avispa Fukuoka
🔄
88'
Yota Maejima ↔ Daiki Miya
Avispa Fukuoka
🟨
90+1'
Noah Kenshin Browne
Fagiano Okayama
🟨
90+4'
Abdul Hanan Sani Brown
Avispa Fukuoka

Avispa Fukuoka vs Fagiano Okayama Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away or Draw
Probability 73.4%
Odds 1.36
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.9%
Odds 1.95
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds 2.39
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away or Draw
73.4%
1.36 ▥
BTTS Yes
78.9%
1.95 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
2.39 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.52 ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
5.50 ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
10.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Avispa Fukuoka Win 26.7%
Draw 21.7%
Fagiano Okayama Win 51.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Avispa Fukuoka1.18
Fagiano Okayama1.43
Recent Form (Last 5)
Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka
WWDLW
9 GF / 12 GA
Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama
WLDWL
11 GF / 10 GA
Key Stats
1.13
Average Goals Scored
1.38
1.5
Average Goals Conceded
1.25
4
BTTS Yes
6
4
Over 2.5
6
4.75
Shots on Goal
3.25

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka 8 matches
Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama 8 matches
Avispa Fukuoka Statistic Fagiano Okayama
1 Wins 4
1 Draws 1
6 Losses 3
9 Goals For 11
12 Goals Against 10
1.13 Avg Goals Scored 1.38
1.5 Avg Goals Conceded 1.25
4 BTTS Yes 6
5 Over 1.5 6
4 Over 2.5 6
2 Over 3.5 1
1 Clean Sheets 2
3 Failed To Score 1
4.75 Shots On Goal 3.25
13 Total Shots 14.75
4.75 Corners 6.25
40.4% Ball Possession 42.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Fagiano Okayama's more proactive style and Avispa Fukuoka's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Avispa Fukuoka have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. Fagiano Okayama carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 9 with 13 points while Avispa Fukuoka sit 18 on 4, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Fagiano Okayama.

Avispa Fukuoka Analysis

Avispa Fukuoka sit 18 with 4 points after 8 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 6 losses, together with goals at 9:12, reflects poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Much of their threat comes through S. Morooka (3 goals), Y. Tsujioka (1 goals), Werik Popó (1 goals), with creative support from D. Fukazawa (2 assists), S. Morooka (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, the split record of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Fagiano Okayama Analysis

So far, Fagiano Okayama have built a campaign that leaves them 9 in the table on 13 points from 8 matches. The record of 4 wins, 1 draws, and 3 defeats, together with a 11:10 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through K. Kawano (3 goals), N. Browne (1 goals), H. Omori (1 goals), with creative support from H. Motoyama (3 assists), Lucão (2 assists), N. Browne (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, the record of 2 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Avispa Fukuoka won 4 times, Fagiano Okayama won 4 times, while 7 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:16 from Avispa Fukuoka's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.07 goals per game.

1X2: Away or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (78.3%)
Predicted formations: Avispa Fukuoka 3-4-2-1 / Fagiano Okayama 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Avispa Fukuoka wins 4, draws 7, Fagiano Okayama wins 4

Standings

J-League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 9 7 0 2 21:14 7 21
W W W L L
2 9 6 1 2 14:9 5 19
L W W W W
3 8 5 2 1 20:6 14 17
W W L W D
4 8 5 2 1 21:10 11 17
L D W W D
5 8 5 2 1 14:8 6 17
W W W D W
6 9 5 1 3 19:16 3 16
W D L L L
7 8 4 2 2 13:9 4 14
W D W D L
8 8 3 4 1 16:12 4 13
D W W L W
9 8 4 1 3 11:10 1 13
L W W W L
10 8 4 0 4 16:18 -2 12
W L W W W
11 8 3 2 3 7:12 -5 11
D L D W L
12 8 3 1 4 6:8 -2 10
W W L D L
13 8 2 3 3 11:11 0 9
L L D W D
14 8 2 2 4 11:15 -4 8
W L L D W
15 8 2 2 4 10:15 -5 8
D W L D L
16 8 2 0 6 7:14 -7 6
L L L L W
17 9 1 3 5 8:16 -8 6
L L L L D
18 8 1 1 6 9:12 -3 4
L L D L L
19 8 0 4 4 4:12 -8 4
L D D L L
20 8 1 1 6 7:18 -11 4
L D W L L
Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
Relegation - J2 League