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MEXICO › LIGA MX
10.10.2026 03:00
Estadio Universitario
Referee: Daniel Quintero Huitron
Tigres UANL
Match Timeline
Toluca
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
6'
Juan Brunetta
Tigres UANL
🟨
33'
Alexis Vega
Toluca
⚽
37'
Guillermo Martinez · Assist: Emiliano Gómez
Tigres UANL
⚽
42'
João Paulo Dias Fernandes · Assist: Brian Garcia
Toluca
🟨
43'
Brian Garcia
Toluca
🟥
45+4'
Antonio Ricardo Mohamed Matijevich
Toluca
🔄
45'
Érick Gutiérrez ↔ Federico Viñas
Toluca
⚽
54'
Federico Viñas · Assist: Hélio Júnio Nunes de Castro
Toluca
⚽
60'
Juan Brunetta · Assist: Fernando Gorriarán
Tigres UANL
🔄
69'
Emiliano Gómez ↔ Diego Sánchez
Tigres UANL
🔄
69'
Alan Franco ↔ Vladimir Loroña
Tigres UANL
🔄
70'
Alexis Vega ↔ Jesús Angulo
Toluca
🔄
71'
Brian Garcia ↔ Santiago Simon
Toluca
🔄
71'
Hélio Júnio Nunes de Castro ↔ Jorge Diaz
Toluca
🔄
77'
Diego Lainez ↔ Jonathan Herrera
Tigres UANL
🔄
77'
Guillermo Martinez ↔ Rodrigo Aguirre
Tigres UANL
🔄
89'
Juan Brunetta ↔ Jesús Garza
Tigres UANL
🟨
90+3'
Andres Pereira
Toluca
🟨
90+3'
Franco Romero
Toluca
🟨
90'
Vladimir Loroña
Tigres UANL
🔄
90'
Nicolás Castro ↔ Pavel Pérez
Toluca

Tigres UANL vs Toluca Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 93.2%
Odds 1.28
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.8%
Odds 1.62
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 61.1%
Odds 1.73
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
93.2%
1.28 ▥
BTTS Yes
58.8%
1.62 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
61.1%
1.73 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.21 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
4.50 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
11.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Tigres UANL Win 43.5%
Draw 6.8%
Toluca Win 49.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Tigres UANL1.3
Toluca1.84
Recent Form (Last 5)
Tigres UANL Tigres UANL
WWDLW
26 GF / 23 GA
Toluca Toluca
WLDWL
46 GF / 26 GA
Key Stats
1.3
Average Goals Scored
2.3
1.15
Average Goals Conceded
1.3
10
BTTS Yes
12
8
Over 2.5
15
4.84
Shots on Goal
6.47

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Tigres UANL Tigres UANL 20 matches
Toluca Toluca 20 matches
Tigres UANL Statistic Toluca
7 Wins 10
7 Draws 4
6 Losses 6
26 Goals For 46
23 Goals Against 26
1.3 Avg Goals Scored 2.3
1.15 Avg Goals Conceded 1.3
10 BTTS Yes 12
14 Over 1.5 17
8 Over 2.5 15
6 Over 3.5 10
8 Clean Sheets 7
5 Failed To Score 2
4.84 Shots On Goal 6.47
15.63 Total Shots 18.18
6.32 Corners 5.06
53.8% Ball Possession 58.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Toluca's more proactive style and Tigres UANL's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Toluca. Toluca carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 20 points while Tigres UANL sit 15 on 10, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself.

Tigres UANL Analysis

Tigres UANL approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 15 with 10 points from 10 matches. The overall return of 2 wins, 4 draws, and 4 defeats with a 10:13 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on J. Brunetta (1 goals), F. Gorriarán (1 goals), R. Aguirre (1 goals), with creative support from J. Brunetta (2 assists), Joaquim (2 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 2 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses, which indicates a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Toluca Analysis

Toluca approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 1 on 20 points after 10 outings. With 6 wins, 2 draws, and 2 defeats plus a goal balance of 23:12, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by A. Vega (4 goals), Paulinho (2 goals), F. Viñas (2 goals), with creative support from Helinho (3 assists), A. Vega (2 assists), N. Castro (2 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. Away from home, they have managed 3 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Tigres UANL won 5 times, Toluca won 6 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 23:24 from Tigres UANL's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 11 matches, with an average of 3.13 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (93.2%)
Predicted formations: Tigres UANL 4-2-3-1 / Toluca 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Tigres UANL wins 5, draws 4, Toluca wins 6

Standings

Liga MX: Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 2 2 23:12 11 20
D L W W W
2 9 6 2 1 21:10 11 20
W D L W W
3 10 5 3 2 17:10 7 18
L D W W D
4 9 5 2 2 13:8 5 17
W D W W L
5 10 5 2 3 14:11 3 17
W D W L D
6 10 5 2 3 16:17 -1 17
W D L D L
7 10 5 1 4 19:18 1 16
D L W W W
8 9 4 2 3 14:13 1 14
L D L W L
9 10 4 2 4 11:12 -1 14
L D L W L
10 9 4 1 4 16:14 2 13
L W D L L
11 10 3 3 4 15:11 4 12
L D W W D
12 10 3 3 4 14:16 -2 12
L D L W L
13 10 3 3 4 14:18 -4 12
W W L L W
14 10 2 5 3 12:15 -3 11
W D L D D
15 10 2 4 4 10:13 -3 10
W L D D D
16 10 3 1 6 10:15 -5 10
W W W L D
17 10 2 2 6 12:20 -8 8
L L L D L
18 10 1 0 9 7:25 -18 3
L W L L L
Promotion - Liga MX (Apertura - Play Offs: Quarter-finals)